Match Info

Premier League - Round 36

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: City Ground (Nottingham)

Referee: Tierney P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nottingham Forest		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.4	2.1
	2.45	3.5	2.75
	3.4	3.45	2.18
	3.69	3.55	2.19
	3.1	3.56	2.28	Watch
	3.4	3.25	2.1
	3.58	3.49	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.46)	3.46 ↓ (3.49)	2.25 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 0.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nottingham Forest
29.2%

Draw
27.9%

Newcastle United
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

27.2%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

27.4%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nottingham Forest's form might have worsened.

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newcastle United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nottingham Forest, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newcastle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.9%	30.8%	33.3%

Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Nottingham will win (votes: 13 - 34.2%). Newcastle will win (votes: 13 - 34.2%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 31.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nottingham: 19.1% – 49.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nottingham (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Newcastle (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Newcastle (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Newcastle (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Nottingham (votes: 1 - 20%). Newcastle (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Sels M. (G) 31. Milenkovic N. 23. Cunha 4. Morato 3. Williams N. (C) 16. Dominguez N. 8. Anderson E. 25. Netz L. 29. Bakwa D. 19. Igor Jesus 9. Awoniyi T.	1. Pope N. (G) 3. Hall L. 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 27. Woltemade N. 23. Murphy J. 18. Osula W. 7. Joelinton
Substitutes
17. da Silva Moreira E. 21. Hutchinson O. 20. Lucca L. 24. McAtee J. 27. Ortega S. (G) 61. Sinclair J. 51. Whitehall A. 11. Wood Ch. 22. Yates R.	11. Barnes H. 20. Elanga A. 10. Gordon A. 37. Murphy A. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 2. Trippier K. 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y.
Coaches
Pereira V.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Dominguez N. ↓, Yates R. ↑,
49', Igor Jesus 🟨,
54', Yates R. 🟨,
61', Murphy J. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
61', Woltemade N. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
64', Bakwa D. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
71', Osula W. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
73', Awoniyi T. ↓, Wood Ch. ↑,
74', 0 - 1, Barnes H. ⚽, Ramsey J. (A),
83', Netz L. ↓, McAtee J. ↑,
83', Igor Jesus ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Anderson E. ⚽, McAtee J. (A),
90+5', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Trippier K. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 0.

Nottingham is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Newcastle is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Newcastle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Nottingham: Boly W. (Knee Injury) Hudson-Odoi C. (Injury) John Victor (Knee Injury) Savona N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Livramento V. (Thigh Injury) Miley L. (Broken Leg) Schar F. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Abbott Z. (Concussion) Aina O. (Injury) Gibbs-White M. (Head Injury) Murillo (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Nottingham will win today's game, with odds of 2.68.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 1.7:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nottingham won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.7:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9:9	0	8
13	Nottingham	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Nottingham Forest - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.58%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nottingham Forest
UEFA Europa League
07.05.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
04.05.26	Chelsea - Nottingham Forest	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
24.04.26	Sunderland - Nottingham Forest	0:5 ✺
19.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 LWWWW
- Newcastle United
English Premier League
02.05.26	Newcastle United - Brighton & Hove Albion	3:1 ✺
25.04.26	Arsenal - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Crystal Palace - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Newcastle United - Sunderland	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
05.10.25	Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest	2:0
23.02.25	Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest	4:3
10.11.24	Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United	1:3
English League Cup
28.08.24	Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United	1:2 penalties
English Premier League
10.02.24	Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United	2:3
26.12.23	Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest	1:3
17.03.23	Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United	1:2

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