Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Newcastle United		PSV Eindhoven

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.5	9
	1.31	5.95	9.7
	1.53	4.97	5.4
	1.35	6.08	8.14	Watch
	1.3	5.5	8
	1.34	5.77	8.91
	1.32	6	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.46)	5.68 ↑ (5.36)	8.16 ↑ (5.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
71.3%

Draw
16.9%

PSV Eindhoven
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

17.9%

16.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

17.2%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle United's performance.

PSV Eindhoven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	12.5%	23.2%

Newcastle United - PSV Eindhoven Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 36 - 66.7%). PSV will win (votes: 11 - 20.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 54.1% – 79.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 15 - 68.2%). PSV (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - PSV (7.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.75 - Newcastle (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - PSV (3.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 16 - 64%). PSV (votes: 5 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 16%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 3. Hall L. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 11. Barnes H. 9. Wissa Y. 10. Gordon A.	32. Kovar M. (G) 25. Sildillia K. 22. Schouten J. (C) 3. Gasiorowski Y. 2. Salah-Eddine A. 10. Wanner P. 17. Mauro Junior 23. Veerman J. 27. Man D. 20. Til G. 5. Perisic I.
Substitutes
20. Elanga A. 67. Miley L. 37. Murphy A. 62. Neave S. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 61. Shahar L. 31. Thompson M. (G) 28. Willock J. 27. Woltemade N.	19. Bajraktarevic E. 11. Driouech C. 31. Fernandez N. 6. Flamingo R. 4. Obispo A. 24. Schiks N. (G) 51. Smolenaars T. (G) 35. van den Berg J. 50. Verkooijen N.
Coaches
Howe E.	Bosz P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Wissa Y. ⚽, Joelinton (A),
26', Bruno Guimaraes 🟨,
30', 2 - 0, Gordon A. ⚽, Wissa Y. (A),
34', Sildillia K. 🟨,
45', Salah-Eddine A. ↓, Obispo A. ↑,
45+3', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Miley L. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Tonali S. 🟨,
62', Gasiorowski Y. 🟨,
63', Man D. ↓, Bajraktarevic E. ↑,
63', Perisic I. ↓, Driouech C. ↑,
65', 3 - 0, Barnes H. ⚽,
72', Joelinton ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
72', Gordon A. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
72', Wissa Y. ↓, Woltemade N. ↑,
73', Til G. ↓, Flamingo R. ↑,
87', Trippier K. ↓, Willock J. ↑,
90+1', Veerman J. 🟨,
90+2', Obispo A. 🟨,

Preview

Newcastle is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

PSV is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

PSV may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Newcastle has had a series of home games.

In this match, Newcastle is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Burn D. (Chest Injury) Gillespie M. (Inactive) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Lascelles J. (Muscle Injury) Livramento V. (Muscle Injury) Murphy J. (Muscle Injury) Osula W. (Ankle Injury) Ruddy J. (Inactive) Schar F. (Injury)

There will not play in PSV: Boadu M. (Muscle Injury) Dest S. (Knock) Olij N. (Groin Injury) Pepi R. (Broken Hand) Plea A. (Knee Injury) Saibari I. (Yellow Cards) van Bommel R. (Knee Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

PSV: 0.63%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	PSV	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
18.01.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
13.01.26	Newcastle United - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	4:3 penalties ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Newcastle United - Leeds United	4:3 ✺
04.01.26	Newcastle United - Crystal Palace	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLWWW
- PSV Eindhoven
Dutch Eredivisie
17.01.26	Fortuna Sittard - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.26	Den Bosch - PSV Eindhoven	1:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.01.26	PSV Eindhoven - Excelsior	5:1 ✺
21.12.25	Utrecht - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
16.12.25	PSV Eindhoven - GVVV	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWWW

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