Match Info

Premier League - Round 21

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Salisbury M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport OTT 7, SuperSport Variety 1
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	Newcastle United		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.75	5.5
	1.68	3.9	4.8
	1.68	4	5.15
	1.68	4.04	5.28	Watch
	1.67	3.7	5
	1.72	4.01	5.43	Watch
	1.66	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.47)	3.91 ↓ (4.4)	5.17 ↓ (7.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
57%

Draw
24.4%

Leeds United
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.9%

21.7%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.5%

22.9%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newcastle United's form might have worsened.

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leeds United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newcastle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leeds United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	18.6%	11.4%

Newcastle United - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 70 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 49 - 70%). Leeds will win (votes: 8 - 11.4%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 18.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 59.3% – 80.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Leeds (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle United will win (23 of 29 users predict this - 79.31%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 23 - 76.7%). Leeds (votes: 4 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pope N. (G) 67. Miley L. 12. Thiaw M. 5. Schar F. 3. Hall L. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 11. Barnes H. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.	1. Lucas Perri (G) 6. Rodon J. 15. Bijol J. 5. Struijk P. 24. Justin J. 44. Gruev I. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 18. Stach A. 3. Gudmundsson G. 11. Aaronson B. 9. Calvert-Lewin D.
Substitutes
4. Botman S. 21. Livramento V. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 2. Trippier K. 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y.	23. Bornauw S. 25. Byram S. 26. Darlow K. (G) 29. Gnonto W. 20. Harrison J. 14. Nmecha L. 19. Okafor N. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.
Coaches
Howe E.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', Thiaw M. 🟨,
22', Calvert-Lewin D. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Aaronson B. ⚽, Calvert-Lewin D. (A),
36', 1 - 1, Barnes H. ⚽, Woltemade N. (A),
45+3', Gordon A. 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 2, Calvert-Lewin D. (Penalty Awarded),
45+6', Joelinton 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Thiaw M. ↓, Botman S. ↑,
46', Tonali S. ↓, Livramento V. ↑,
54', 2 - 2, Joelinton ⚽, Bruno Guimaraes (A),
75', Schar F. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
75', Woltemade N. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
79', 2 - 3, Aaronson B. ⚽, Gruev I. (A),
80', Stach A. ↓, Okafor N. ↑,
81', Gordon A. ↓, Murphy A. ↑,
86', Calvert-Lewin D. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 3, Bruno Guimaraes (Penalty Awarded),
90+7', Gruev I. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
90+7', Aaronson B. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
90+7', Rodon J. ↓, Bornauw S. ↑,
90+10', Ampadu E. 🟨,
90+12', 4 - 3, Barnes H. ⚽, Botman S. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 1.

Newcastle is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leeds's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Newcastle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Newcastle is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Burn D. (Chest Injury) Elanga A. (Knee Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Lascelles J. (Muscle Injury) Osula W. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Leeds: James D. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Murphy J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Bogle J. (Calf Injury) Rodon J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Leeds: 0.58%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7:3	4	9
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9:9	0	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
04.01.26	Newcastle United - Crystal Palace	2:0 ✺
30.12.25	Burnley - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
26.12.25	Manchester United - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Newcastle United - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
17.12.25	Newcastle United - Fulham	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLTW
- Leeds United
English Premier League
04.01.26	Leeds United - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
01.01.26	Liverpool - Leeds United	0:0 ✺
28.12.25	Sunderland - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	4:1 ✺
14.12.25	Brentford - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.08.25	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:0
13.05.23	Leeds United - Newcastle United	2:2
31.12.22	Newcastle United - Leeds United	0:0
22.01.22	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:1
17.09.21	Newcastle United - Leeds United	1:1
26.01.21	Newcastle United - Leeds United	1:2
16.12.20	Leeds United - Newcastle United	5:2

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