Match Info

Premier League - Round 21

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Salisbury M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport OTT 7, SuperSport Variety 1
Argentina	17:15	Disney+
Armenia	00:15	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	07:15	Stan Sport
Austria	21:15	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Mix
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:15	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	17:15	Disney+
Bulgaria	22:15	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	15:15	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM, FuboTV
Chile	17:15	Disney+
China	04:15	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	15:15	Disney+
Croatia	21:15	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:15	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech Republic	21:15	CANAL+ Sport 2, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	21:15	TV3+, Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	22:15	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	21:15	Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Germany	21:15	Sky Sport Mix, WOW
Greece	22:15	Nova Sports 5
Hong Kong	04:15	M Plus Live
Iceland	20:15	SÝN Sport 4
India	01:45	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	03:15	Vidio
Ireland	20:15	NOW
Italy	21:15	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252
Japan	05:15	U-NEXT
Malaysia	04:15	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 3, Astro Premier League 5, Sooka
Mexico	14:15	HBO Max
Nepal	02:00	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	21:15	Viaplay
New Zealand	09:15	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 4
Nigeria	21:15	SuperSport OTT 7, SuperSport Variety 1
North Macedonia	21:15	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:15	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 2
Pakistan	01:15	ARY ZAP
Peru	15:15	Disney+
Poland	21:15	Canal+ Extra 5
Portugal	20:15	DAZN / App
Romania	22:15	Voyo
Serbia	21:15	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	21:15	Voyo
Slovenia	21:15	Arena Sport 2
South Africa	22:15	SuperSport OTT 7, SuperSport Variety 1
South Korea	05:15	Coupang Play
Spain	21:15	DAZN Espana
Sweden	21:15	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	21:15	Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sky Sport Mix, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	03:15	AIS PLAY
Turkey	23:15	beIN Connect
United Kingdom	20:15	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go
Uruguay	17:15	Disney+
Usa	15:15	NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock
Venezuela	16:15	Disney+
Vietnam	03:15	FPT Play


	Newcastle United		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.75	5.5
	1.68	3.9	4.8
	1.68	4	5.15
	1.68	4.04	5.28	Watch
	1.67	3.7	5
	1.72	4.01	5.43	Watch
	1.66	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.47)	3.91 ↓ (4.4)	5.17 ↓ (7.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
57%

Draw
24.4%

Leeds United
18.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.9%

21.7%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.4%

21.9%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newcastle United's form might have worsened.

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leeds United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newcastle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leeds United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	18.6%	11.4%

Newcastle United - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 70 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 49 - 70%). Leeds will win (votes: 8 - 11.4%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 18.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 59.3% – 80.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Leeds (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle United will win (23 of 29 users predict this - 79.31%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 23 - 76.7%). Leeds (votes: 4 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pope N. (G) 67. Miley L. 12. Thiaw M. 5. Schar F. 3. Hall L. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 11. Barnes H. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.	1. Lucas Perri (G) 6. Rodon J. 15. Bijol J. 5. Struijk P. 24. Justin J. 44. Gruev I. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 18. Stach A. 3. Gudmundsson G. 11. Aaronson B. 9. Calvert-Lewin D.
Substitutes
4. Botman S. 21. Livramento V. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 2. Trippier K. 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y.	23. Bornauw S. 25. Byram S. 26. Darlow K. (G) 29. Gnonto W. 20. Harrison J. 14. Nmecha L. 19. Okafor N. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.
Coaches
Howe E.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', Thiaw M. 🟨,
22', Calvert-Lewin D. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Aaronson B. ⚽, Calvert-Lewin D. (A),
36', 1 - 1, Barnes H. ⚽, Woltemade N. (A),
45+3', Gordon A. 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 2, Calvert-Lewin D. (Penalty Awarded),
45+6', Joelinton 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Thiaw M. ↓, Botman S. ↑,
46', Tonali S. ↓, Livramento V. ↑,
54', 2 - 2, Joelinton ⚽, Bruno Guimaraes (A),
75', Schar F. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
75', Woltemade N. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
79', 2 - 3, Aaronson B. ⚽, Gruev I. (A),
80', Stach A. ↓, Okafor N. ↑,
81', Gordon A. ↓, Murphy A. ↑,
86', Calvert-Lewin D. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 3, Bruno Guimaraes (Penalty Awarded),
90+7', Gruev I. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
90+7', Aaronson B. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
90+7', Rodon J. ↓, Bornauw S. ↑,
90+10', Ampadu E. 🟨,
90+12', 4 - 3, Barnes H. ⚽, Botman S. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 1.

Newcastle is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leeds's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Newcastle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Newcastle is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Burn D. (Chest Injury) Elanga A. (Knee Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Lascelles J. (Muscle Injury) Osula W. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Leeds: James D. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Murphy J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Bogle J. (Calf Injury) Rodon J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Leeds	8	2	5	1	9:6	3	11
8	Newcastle	8	3	2	3	12:14	-2	11

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Leeds: 0.59%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
04.01.26	Newcastle United - Crystal Palace	2:0 ✺
30.12.25	Burnley - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
26.12.25	Manchester United - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Newcastle United - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
17.12.25	Newcastle United - Fulham	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLTW
- Leeds United
English Premier League
04.01.26	Leeds United - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
01.01.26	Liverpool - Leeds United	0:0 ✺
28.12.25	Sunderland - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	4:1 ✺
14.12.25	Brentford - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.08.25	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:0
13.05.23	Leeds United - Newcastle United	2:2
31.12.22	Newcastle United - Leeds United	0:0
22.01.22	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:1
17.09.21	Newcastle United - Leeds United	1:1
26.01.21	Newcastle United - Leeds United	1:2
16.12.20	Leeds United - Newcastle United	5:2

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