Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 8 August 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Marcelo Bielsa (Rosario)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV5


	Newells Old Boys		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.3	4.2	Watch
	1.9	3	4.6
	1.98	3.15	4.1
	1.93	3.2	4.63
	1.88	2.9	4.4
	1.93	3.13	4.55	Watch
	1.93	3.1	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.19)	3.11 ↓ (3.16)	4.4 ↑ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newells Old Boys
48.7%

Draw
30.1%

Corinthians
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

29.6%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

30%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newells Old Boys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newells Old Boys's performance.

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Corinthians might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newells Old Boys than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newells Old Boys that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Corinthians could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Newells Old Boys - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: Newells Old Boys will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hoyos L. (G) 14. Mendez A. 25. Velazquez G. 42. Ortiz G. 37. Glavinovich I. 23. Martino A. 7. Gomez I. 13. Sforza J. 30. Ferreira C. 28. Recalde J. 47. Balzi G.	12. Cassio (C) 25. Bruno Mendez 14. Caetano 4. Carlos G. d. N. S. 21. Matheus Bidu 33. Ruan O. 5. Fausto Vera 7. Maycon 28. Adson 9. Yuri Alberto 36. Wesley
Substitutes
18. Aguirre B. 31. Barlasina W. (G) 29. Esponda M. 19. Mansilla F. 43. Montenegro L. S. 6. Mosquera J. 22. Portillo M. 16. Reasco D. 26. Sordo R. 34. Sotelo D. 27. Tica J. 21. Vangioni L.	11. Angel Romero 26. Biro 22. Carlos Miguel (G) 6. Fabio Santos 23. Fagner 41. Felipe Augusto 20. Giuliano 30. Matheus Araujo 34. Murillo 27. Pedro Henrique 2. Rafael Ramos 29. Roni
Coaches
Heinze G.	Luxemburgo V.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Recent matches Newell's Old Boys is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Corinthians is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Corinthians could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Newell's Old Boys is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Newell's Old Boys won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newells Old Boys
Copa Sudamericana
01.08.23	Corinthians - Newells Old Boys	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.07.23	Newells Old Boys - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
24.07.23	Boca Juniors - Newells Old Boys	2:1 ✺
17.07.23	Newells Old Boys - Atlético Tucumán	0:0 ✺
11.07.23	Independiente - Newells Old Boys	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTLTW
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
05.08.23	Internacional RS - Corinthians	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.08.23	Corinthians - Newells Old Boys	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.07.23	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.07.23	Corinthians - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.07.23	Bahia - Corinthians	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
01.08.23	Corinthians - Newells Old Boys	2:1

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