Match Info

Cymru South - Round 27

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday


	Newport City		Treowen Stars

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.8	4.05
	1.74	3.89	3.96
	1.68	4.02	4.45	Watch
	1.7	3.5	3.9
	1.78	3.97	3.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.75)	3.84 ↓ (4)	4.06 ↑ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport City
53.6%

Draw
23.9%

Treowen Stars
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

22.7%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

22.3%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Treowen Stars has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Treowen Stars than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Newport City - Treowen Stars Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Sage E. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, John D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
71', 2 - 1, Mace C. ⚽,
75', 2 - 2, Campbell C. ⚽,
81', 2 - 3, Selway H. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 10).

Newport City has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Treowen has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Newport City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Newport City is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Newport City won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Treowen	9	4	1	4	18:18	0	13
12	Newport City	7	2	2	3	10:6	4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
14.03.26	Ynyshir Albions - Newport City	4:0 ✺
09.03.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Newport City	1:0 ✺
06.03.26	Newport City - Baglan Dragons	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Newport City - Carmarthen Town	4:4 ✺
20.02.26	Newport City - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLTW
- Treowen Stars
Welsh Cymru South
17.03.26	Treowen Stars - Baglan Dragons	4:1 ✺
14.03.26	Treowen Stars - Pontypridd United	2:2 ✺
10.03.26	Caerau Ely - Treowen Stars	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	Treowen Stars - Cambrian United	2:2 ✺
03.03.26	Llantwit Major - Treowen Stars	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
29.11.25	Treowen Stars - Newport City	2:0

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