Match Info

Cymru South - Round 26

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday


	Ynyshir Albions		Newport City

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.75	1.58
	4.77	4.03	1.59
	4.56	4.04	1.66	Watch
	4.8	3.6	1.57
	5.02	3.88	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.78 ↑ (3.54)	3.86 ↓ (3.89)	1.59 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ynyshir Albions
19.1%

Draw
23.6%

Newport City
57.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.3%

23.9%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8%

23.4%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ynyshir Albions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ynyshir Albions's form might have worsened.

Newport City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newport City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ynyshir Albions than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ynyshir Albions, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newport City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ynyshir Albions - Newport City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Griffiths J. ⚽,
21', 2 - 0, Salter C. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', 3 - 0, Ellis J. ⚽,
63', 4 - 0, Salter C. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 8).

Recent form of Ynyshir Albions has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Newport City has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Newport City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Newport City is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ynyshir Albions won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ynyshir Albions	8	3	4	1	9:7	2	13
13	Newport City	8	2	2	4	12:9	3	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ynyshir Albions
Welsh Cymru South
06.03.26	Cwmbran Celtic - Ynyshir Albions	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Ynyshir Albions - Treowen Stars	1:1 ✺
24.02.26	Ynyshir Albions - Llantwit Major	2:3 ✺
20.02.26	Trefelin - Ynyshir Albions	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Ynyshir Albions - Pontypridd United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTLLL
- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
09.03.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Newport City	1:0 ✺
06.03.26	Newport City - Baglan Dragons	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Newport City - Carmarthen Town	4:4 ✺
20.02.26	Newport City - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Afan Lido - Newport City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
22.08.25	Newport City - Ynyshir Albions	1:1

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