Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 40

Date: 7 April 2023, Friday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Referee: Doughty L. (Eng)


	Newport County		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.8
	2.6	3	2.8
	2.7	2.9	2.8
	2.81	3	2.9
	2.7	2.9	2.8
	2.64	3.13	2.8	Watch
	2.6	2.95	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.55)	2.98 ↑ (2.9)	2.8 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
35%

Draw
31.5%

Northampton Town
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

32.2%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

34.3%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

Newport County - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Northampton will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Northampton: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Newport has the most likely position - 16 (14.99%), project points - 55, currently - 44, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

Northampton has the most likely position - 2 (33.32%), project points - 81, currently - 70, not chance of relegated, a chance of prom. playoffs (34%), a good chance of promoted (72%), a small chance of win league (7%).

This event has small quality 11, importance 50, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newport won 0.

Recent matches Newport is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Northampton is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Northampton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Newport won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 11-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Newport won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English League Two
01.04.23	Colchester United - Newport County	0:0 ✺
18.03.23	Tranmere Rovers - Newport County	1:3 ✺
14.03.23	Newport County - AFC Wimbledon	1:1 ✺
11.03.23	Newport County - Bradford City	1:1 ✺
07.03.23	Grimsby Town - Newport County	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWTTT
- Northampton Town
English League Two
01.04.23	Northampton Town - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
25.03.23	Doncaster Rovers - Northampton Town	0:2 ✺
18.03.23	Northampton Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
14.03.23	Northampton Town - Mansfield Town	1:0 ✺
11.03.23	Hartlepool United - Northampton Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
29.10.22	Northampton Town - Newport County	1:1
08.02.22	Northampton Town - Newport County	1:0
14.09.21	Newport County - Northampton Town	0:1
14.09.19	Northampton Town - Newport County	2:0
12.03.19	Northampton Town - Newport County	1:0
27.11.18	Newport County - Northampton Town	3:1
25.03.16	Northampton Town - Newport County	1:0

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