Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 38

Date: 25 March 2023, Saturday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Referee: Duckworth E. (Eng)


	Hartlepool United		Leyton Orient

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.5	1.85
	4.33	3.3	1.85
	4.7	3.4	1.75
	4.72	3.49	1.86
	4.4	3.3	1.85
	4.65	3.54	1.79	Watch
	4.1	3.35	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.44 ↓ (4.91)	3.41 ↓ (3.52)	1.83 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
21.1%

Draw
27.5%

Leyton Orient
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

26.7%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

26.2%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Leyton Orient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leyton Orient than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Hartlepool United - Leyton Orient Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 5 - 25%). Leyton Orient will win (votes: 10 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leyton Orient: 28.1% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 23 (52.1%), project points - 40, currently - 31, a good chance of relegated (77%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Leyton Orient has the most likely position - 1 (68.38%), project points - 88, currently - 73, not chance of relegated, a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), a very good chance of promoted (96%), a good chance of win league (68%).

This event has very small quality 8, big importance 75, match rating 41. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 0.

Recent matches Hartlepool is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Leyton Orient is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Leyton Orient could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Leyton Orient have a series of home games.

In this match Leyton Orient is a favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 15-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartlepool won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English League Two
18.03.23	Bradford City - Hartlepool United	2:2 ✺
11.03.23	Hartlepool United - Northampton Town	1:1 ✺
04.03.23	Tranmere Rovers - Hartlepool United	1:1 ✺
25.02.23	Hartlepool United - Walsall	3:3 ✺
21.02.23	Hartlepool United - Newport County	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 TTTTL
- Leyton Orient
English League Two
18.03.23	Leyton Orient - Colchester United	2:2 ✺
04.03.23	Leyton Orient - Swindon Town	1:1 ✺
25.02.23	Grimsby Town - Leyton Orient	2:2 ✺
18.02.23	Leyton Orient - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
14.02.23	Leyton Orient - Rochdale	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
27.08.22	Leyton Orient - Hartlepool United	4:2
12.03.22	Hartlepool United - Leyton Orient	0:0
30.10.21	Leyton Orient - Hartlepool United	5:0
English National League
09.02.19	Hartlepool United - Leyton Orient	1:1
13.10.18	Leyton Orient - Hartlepool United	0:0
17.04.18	Hartlepool United - Leyton Orient	1:0
16.09.17	Leyton Orient - Hartlepool United	1:2

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