Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 36

Date: 11 March 2023, Saturday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)


	Hartlepool United		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.3	2.1
	3.6	3.1	2.1
	3.8	3.4	1.95
	3.77	3.25	2.17
	3.7	3.1	2.1
	3.66	3.22	2.11	Watch
	3.5	3.1	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↓ (4.44)	3.21 ↓ (3.28)	2.09 ↑ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
25.7%

Draw
29.3%

Northampton Town
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.5%

29.2%

49.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

28.8%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	18.2%	72.7%

Hartlepool United - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Northampton will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Northampton: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 22 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs)).

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 23 (37.21%), has project points - 39, has currently - 29, has a good chance of relegated (66%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Northampton has the most likely position - 3 (15.78%), has project points - 78, has currently - 59, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of prom. playoffs (50%), has a chance of promoted (45%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

This event has very small quality 7, importance 61, match rating 34. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 1.

Hartlepool is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Northampton is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hartlepool could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Northampton will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartlepool won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English League Two
04.03.23	Tranmere Rovers - Hartlepool United	1:1 ✺
25.02.23	Hartlepool United - Walsall	3:3 ✺
21.02.23	Hartlepool United - Newport County	0:1 ✺
18.02.23	AFC Wimbledon - Hartlepool United	2:2 ✺
14.02.23	Crewe Alexandra - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TTLTL
- Northampton Town
English League Two
04.03.23	Northampton Town - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
28.02.23	Harrogate Town - Northampton Town	1:1 ✺
25.02.23	Colchester United - Northampton Town	0:1 ✺
18.02.23	Northampton Town - Grimsby Town	1:2 ✺
14.02.23	Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
13.08.22	Northampton Town - Hartlepool United	2:1
26.03.22	Northampton Town - Hartlepool United	2:0
09.10.21	Hartlepool United - Northampton Town	2:1
27.02.16	Hartlepool United - Northampton Town	0:0
10.10.15	Northampton Town - Hartlepool United	2:1
10.02.15	Hartlepool United - Northampton Town	1:0
16.09.14	Northampton Town - Hartlepool United	5:1

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