Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 37

Date: 18 March 2023, Saturday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		Crewe Alexandra

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.8	7.5
	1.53	4	6
	1.48	4.05	6.6
	1.55	4.08	6.72
	1.55	3.75	6.5
	1.53	4.05	6.35	Watch
	1.51	3.85	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.55)	3.94 ↑ (3.64)	6.52 ↑ (5.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
61.8%

Draw
23.8%

Crewe Alexandra
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

25.2%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

24.6%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	14.3%	42.9%

Northampton Town - Crewe Alexandra Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Northampton will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Crewe will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs) and 17).

Northampton has the most likely position - 4 (18.35%), project points - 79, currently - 63, not chance of relegated, a good chance of prom. playoffs (57%), a chance of promoted (46%), a very small chance of win league (3%).

Crewe has the most likely position - 18 (19.16%), project points - 54, currently - 42, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 9, importance 38, small match rating 24. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Northampton won 2.

Northampton is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Crewe is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Crewe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Northampton is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Northampton to win the game is with odds 1.56.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Northampton won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Northampton won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League Two
14.03.23	Northampton Town - Mansfield Town	1:0 ✺
11.03.23	Hartlepool United - Northampton Town	1:1 ✺
04.03.23	Northampton Town - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
28.02.23	Harrogate Town - Northampton Town	1:1 ✺
25.02.23	Colchester United - Northampton Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTWTW
- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
14.03.23	Stevenage Borough - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
10.03.23	Crewe Alexandra - Salford City	4:3 ✺
04.03.23	Sutton United - Crewe Alexandra	1:1 ✺
25.02.23	Crewe Alexandra - Rochdale	1:1 ✺
21.02.23	Walsall - Crewe Alexandra	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWTTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
20.08.22	Crewe Alexandra - Northampton Town	2:2
English League One
20.03.21	Northampton Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:1
12.12.20	Crewe Alexandra - Northampton Town	2:1
English League Two
16.11.19	Northampton Town - Crewe Alexandra	4:1
02.03.19	Crewe Alexandra - Northampton Town	0:2
03.11.18	Northampton Town - Crewe Alexandra	2:0
31.03.12	Crewe Alexandra - Northampton Town	N/A

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