Match Info

League One - Round 31

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		Stevenage Borough

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.32
	3.15	3.05	2.32
	3.24	3.14	2.42
	3.07	3.12	2.39	Watch
	3	2.9	2.3
	3.09	3.09	2.37	Watch
	3.1	3.14	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (3.01)	3.08 ↑ (2.95)	2.35 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
30%

Draw
30.3%

Stevenage Borough
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

31.1%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

29.4%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Northampton Town - Stevenage Borough Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Northampton will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Stevenage will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stevenage: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Stevenage (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Fitzsimons R. (G) 35. Dyche M. 24. Moore E. 18. Forbes M. 11. Swyer K. 23. Taylor T. 4. Campbell D. 12. Guinness-Walker N. 8. McGeehan C. (C) 9. Eaves T. 10. List E.	1. Marschall F. (G) 15. Goode C. 6. Sweeney D. (C) 16. Freestone L. 2. James-Wildin L. 8. Phillips D. 18. White H. 14. Earley S. 10. Kemp D. 7. Cornick H. 19. Reid J.
Substitutes
1. Burge L. (G) 7. Hoskins S. 17. Jacobs M. 3. McCarthy C. 21. Perkins J. 27. Vale J. 16. Wormleighton J.	13. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 20. Campbell C. 4. Houghton J. 30. Lubala B. 5. Piergianni C. 11. Roberts J. 23. Thompson L.
Coaches
Nolan K.	Revell A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Forbes M. ⚽, Taylor T. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Reid J. ⚽, White H. (A),
45+2', Goode C. 🟨,
45+3', Eaves T. (Penalty Awarded),
45+3', Reid J. 🟨,
45+3', 2 - 1, Eaves T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Dyche M. 🟨,
62', Cornick H. ↓, Lubala B. ↑,
68', List E. ↓, Hoskins S. ↑,
68', Forbes M. ↓, Wormleighton J. ↑,
69', Earley S. ↓, Roberts J. ↑,
69', Kemp D. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
71', Sweeney D. 🟨,
74', Moore E. 🟨,
77', Fitzsimons R. 🟨,
80', Eaves T. ↓, Vale J. ↑,
80', Swyer K. ↓, Jacobs M. ↑,
88', Hoskins S. 🟨,
90', 3 - 1, Hoskins S. ⚽, Jacobs M. (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 0.

Northampton is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Stevenage has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Stevenage may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Northampton: Shaw L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Stevenage: Simpson T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Northampton: Edwards K. (Injury) Guthrie J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Stevenage: Goode C. (Injury) James-Wildin L. (Inactive)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:19. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Northampton won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.1:0.4).

Outrights of English League One for now

Stevenage: 1.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Stevenage	8	3	3	2	12:8	4	12

Last Results with these Odds

Northampton Town - the odds 3.01 are the expected chance of winning is 30.44%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League One
03.02.26	Barnsley - Northampton Town	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Northampton Town - Reading	0:2 ✺
27.01.26	Rotherham United - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Blackpool - Northampton Town	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Northampton Town - Wycombe Wanderers	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLLLL
- Stevenage Borough
English League One
31.01.26	Barnsley - Stevenage Borough	3:1 ✺
27.01.26	Stevenage Borough - Peterborough United	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Stevenage Borough - Mansfield Town	1:1 ✺
20.01.26	Stevenage Borough - Bolton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Exeter City - Stevenage Borough	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
16.08.25	Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town	2:0
01.01.25	Northampton Town - Stevenage Borough	0:0
03.12.24	Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town	2:0
26.12.23	Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town	3:0
05.08.23	Northampton Town - Stevenage Borough	0:1
English League Two
01.04.23	Northampton Town - Stevenage Borough	1:1
22.10.22	Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town	2:3

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