Match Info

Cymru Premier - Relegation Group - Round 31

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Latham Park (Newtown)

Referee: Owen T. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, S4C


	Newtown		Aberystwyth Town

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.2	6.25
	1.44	4.3	6.4
	1.48	4.02	7.03	Watch
	1.44	4.2	6.5
	1.46	4.44	6.4	Watch
	1.44	4.3	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.57)	4.24 ↑ (4)	6.5 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newtown
64%

Draw
21.8%

Aberystwyth Town
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

23%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

17.1%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newtown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newtown's performance.

Aberystwyth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (-20.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newtown that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aberystwyth Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Newtown - Aberystwyth Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schwarzer J. (G) 8. Evans R. 24. Hughes G. 9. Oswell J. 26. Rainbird J. 23. Sharp O. 22. Smith C. 27. Smith D. 6. Sutton S. 12. Torry D. 14. Williams A.	21. Osment S. (G) 4. Bradford L. 16. Davies B. 9. Flint N. 11. Hartley Z. 8. Lewis I. 10. Owen J. 27. Patterson R. 23. Sharif A. 6. Thorn J. 2. Walsh L.
Substitutes
16. Downs D. 20. Harries J. 35. Howells H. 4. Martin D. 32. Roberts A. 18. Tahra W. 13. Ussher S. (G)	22. Dafis G. 28. Darlington A. 26. Diboe C. 15. Duggan I. 17. Huxley C. 1. Jones D. (G) 12. Mason T.
Coaches
McKenzie C.	Corbisiero A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', Davies B. ↓, Darlington A. ↑,
37', 1 - 0, Sharp O. ⚽,
44', Rainbird J. ↓, Harries J. ↑,
45+1', 1 - 1, Flint N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', 2 - 1, Oswell J. ⚽,
56', Evans R. 🟨,
62', Smith D. 🟨,
70', Evans R. ↓, Martin D. ↑,
70', Smith C. ↓, Tahra W. ↑,
75', Bradford L. ↓, Diboe C. ↑,
75', Sharif A. ↓, Dafis G. ↑,
79', 2 - 2, Flint N. ⚽,
82', 2 - 3, Diboe C. ⚽,
83', 🟨,
86', Hughes G. ↓, Downs D. ↑,
87', Flint N. ↓, Mason T. ↑,
88', Hartley Z. ↓, Huxley C. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newtown won 3.

Recent matches Newtown is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aberystwyth has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Newtown is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Newtown won 11 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 36:27 (average 1.8:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Newtown won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:12 (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
28.03.25	Barry Town United - Newtown	2:1 ✺
21.03.25	Newtown - Gap Connahs Quay	2:3 ✺
11.03.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Newtown	1:1 ✺
07.03.25	Newtown - Flint Town United	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLTTW
- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
28.03.25	Aberystwyth Town - Flint Town United	1:2 ✺
21.03.25	Aberystwyth Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	0:1 ✺
11.03.25	Barry Town United - Aberystwyth Town	2:1 ✺
07.03.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Aberystwyth Town	3:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
28.02.25	Aberystwyth Town - The New Saints	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
22.02.25	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	0:1
08.11.24	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	3:1
09.08.24	Newtown - Aberystwyth Town	4:1
14.11.23	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	0:1
26.08.23	Newtown - Aberystwyth Town	0:0
30.12.22	Newtown - Aberystwyth Town	6:1
26.12.22	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	1:2

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