Match Info

ENGLAND: FA CUP - 1/128-FINALS

Date: 4 November 2023, Saturday


	Northampton Town		Barrow

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	4
	2.05	3.4	3.6
	1.95	3.4	3.6	Watch
	2.06	3.44	3.75
	2.06	3.44	3.7
	1.95	3.5	3.4
	2.01	3.5	3.58	Watch
	2.02	3.35	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.09)	3.42 ↓ (3.49)	3.65 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
46.7%

Draw
27.5%

Barrow
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

26.8%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

26.4%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Barrow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barrow than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Northampton Town - Barrow Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thompson M. (G) 6. Sherring S. 15. Willis J. 33. Brough P. 22. Odimayo A. 21. Leonard M. 17. McWilliams S. 23. Hondermarck W. 14. Koiki A. 11. Pinnock M. 7. Hoskins S. (C)	1. Farman P. (G) 17. Chester J. 5. Ray G. 6. Canavan N. (C) 11. Newby E. 8. Spence K. 18. Stephenson L. 13. White T. 3. Ogungbo M. 20. Acquah E. 19. Telford D.
Substitutes
9. Appere L. 36. Dadge J. (G) 40. Dobson N. 24. Haynes R. 20. Lintott H. 3. McGowan A. 12. Monthe E. 16. Simpson T. 4. Sowerby J.	35. Bray O. 14. Duffus C. 37. Etaluku S. 16. Foley S. 10. Garner G. 15. Gotts R. 12. Lillis J. (G) 9. Proctor J. 34. Whitfield B.

Preview

Replayed if draw.

Northampton has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Barrow is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Northampton have a series of guest games.

Northampton will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Northampton won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Northampton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League One
31.10.23	Derby County - Northampton Town	4:0 ✺
28.10.23	Bristol Rovers - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
24.10.23	Northampton Town - Leyton Orient	2:2 ✺
21.10.23	Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
07.10.23	Shrewsbury Town - Northampton Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTLL
- Barrow
English League Two
31.10.23	Barrow - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
28.10.23	Barrow - Salford City	0:0 ✺
24.10.23	Forest Green Rovers - Barrow	0:2 ✺
21.10.23	Barrow - AFC Wimbledon	0:0 ✺
14.10.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Barrow	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
28.01.23	Barrow - Northampton Town	0:2
03.09.22	Northampton Town - Barrow	3:1
07.05.22	Barrow - Northampton Town	1:3
01.02.22	Northampton Town - Barrow	0:1

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