Match Info

League One - Round 25

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Chilowicz A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Bolton Wanderers		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.33	8.5
	1.39	5	6.75
	1.37	4.7	7.9
	1.39	4.72	7.61	Watch
	1.36	4.5	7.5
	1.38	4.35	8.53	Watch
	1.37	4.5	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.45)	4.59 ↑ (4.34)	7.9 ↑ (6.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
67.9%

Draw
20.3%

Northampton Town
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

21.5%

14.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

20.7%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	9.1%	0%

Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Bolton Wanderers will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Miller T. (G) 29. Christie C. 18. Toal E. (C) 6. Johnston G. 5. Taylor R. 8. Sheehan J. 21. Erhahon E. 19. Cozier-Duberry A. 22. Dempsey K. 20. Cissoko I. 48. Burstow M.	34. Fitzsimons R. (G) 5. Guthrie J. (C) 35. Dyche M. 21. Perkins J. 16. Wormleighton J. 23. Taylor T. 4. Campbell D. 12. Guinness-Walker N. 7. Hoskins S. 27. Vale J. 10. List E.
Substitutes
25. Conway M. 10. Dalby S. 11. Gale T. 14. Osei-Tutu J. 17. Randall J. 1. Sharman-Lowe T. (G) 4. Simons X.	1. Burge L. (G) 2. Burroughs J. 9. Eaves T. 22. Edwards K. 17. Jacobs M. 11. Swyer K. 6. Willis J.
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Nolan K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', List E. ↓, Eaves T. ↑,
56', Vale J. ↓, Edwards K. ↑,
58', Taylor R. ↓, Conway M. ↑,
58', Erhahon E. ↓, Randall J. ↑,
65', Dyche M. ↓, Willis J. ↑,
67', Cissoko I. ↓, Gale T. ↑,
76', Christie C. ↓, Osei-Tutu J. ↑,
76', Burstow M. ↓, Dalby S. ↑,
80', Perkins J. ↓, Swyer K. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 19).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 3.

In recent matches, Bolton has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Northampton is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Bolton is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Bolton: Adeboyejo V. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Northampton: Fornah T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Northampton: McCarthy C. (Inactive) McGeehan C. (Injury) Shaw L. (Knee Injury) Wheatley E. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bolton won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Bolton Wanderers - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 64.4%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
01.01.26	Doncaster Rovers - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
29.12.25	Bolton Wanderers - Mansfield Town	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Bolton Wanderers - Rotherham United	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Wycombe Wanderers - Bolton Wanderers	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Bolton Wanderers - Exeter City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TLWLW
- Northampton Town
English League One
01.01.26	Northampton Town - Stockport County	0:0 ✺
29.12.25	Huddersfield Town - Northampton Town	2:0 ✺
26.12.25	Burton Albion - Northampton Town	5:1 ✺
19.12.25	Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon	3:1 ✺
13.12.25	Peterborough United - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
27.09.25	Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
28.01.25	Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town	3:1
01.10.24	Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers	2:4
10.02.24	Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers	1:1
21.10.23	Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town	2:1
18.03.17	Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town	2:1
26.11.16	Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:1

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