Match Info

League One - Round 34

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: Duckworth E. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		Leyton Orient

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.25	2.5	Watch
	2.68	3.35	2.52	Watch
	2.99	3.39	2.41
	2.83	3.33	2.44	Watch
	2.63	3.2	2.5
	2.7	3.25	2.55	Watch
	3	3.25	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.66)	3.29 ↑ (3.23)	2.47 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
33.6%

Draw
28.5%

Leyton Orient
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

28.3%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

26.7%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Leyton Orient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leyton Orient than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	12.5%	31.2%

Northampton Town - Leyton Orient Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Northampton will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Leyton Orient will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Northampton: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Northampton (votes: 1 - 50%). Leyton Orient (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Fitzsimons R. (G) 35. Dyche M. 24. Moore E. 21. Perkins J. 7. Hoskins S. (C) 23. Taylor T. 4. Campbell D. 12. Guinness-Walker N. 8. McGeehan C. 9. Eaves T. 14. Fornah T.	12. Dennis W. (G) 16. Casey K. 6. Forrester W. (C) 4. Simpson J. 14. Craig M. 24. Levitt D. 28. Clare S. 3. Morris J. 19. Fawunmi F. 7. O'Neill O. 32. Ballard D.
Substitutes
1. Burge L. (G) 2. Burroughs J. 15. Evans J. 10. List E. 26. McAdam K. 3. McCarthy C. 11. Swyer K.	22. Abdulai A. 44. Archibald T. 33. Cahill K. (G) 5. Happe D. 17. Koroma J. 20. Perkins S. 25. Wellens C.
Coaches
Nolan K.	Wellens R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Ballard D. ⚽, Levitt D. (A),
45', Craig M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Perkins J. ↓, Burroughs J. ↑,
47', 0 - 2, Morris J. ⚽, Ballard D. (A),
60', 1 - 2, Eaves T. ⚽, Campbell D. (A),
65', Guinness-Walker N. 🟨,
70', Simpson J. ↓, Happe D. ↑,
72', Dennis W. 🟨,
77', Fawunmi F. ↓, Archibald T. ↑,
84', Levitt D. ↓, Abdulai A. ↑,
89', Fornah T. ↓, List E. ↑,
89', Taylor T. ↓, Evans J. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 3.

Recent performances by Northampton have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leyton Orient has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Leyton Orient may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Northampton has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Northampton: Edwards K. (Injury) Guthrie J. (Inactive) Shaw L. (Knee Injury) Vale J. (Red Card)

There will not play in Leyton Orient: Connolly A. (Injury) Edmonds-Green R. (Inactive) El Mizouni I. (Injury) Graham J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Northampton won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.9:0.9).

Outrights of English League One for now

Leyton Orient: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Leyton Orient	9	3	2	4	13:11	2	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League One
17.02.26	Lincoln City - Northampton Town	4:0 ✺
14.02.26	Exeter City - Northampton Town	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.02.26	AFC Wimbledon - Northampton Town	1:2 ✺
English League One
07.02.26	Northampton Town - Stevenage Borough	3:1 ✺
03.02.26	Barnsley - Northampton Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LTWWT
- Leyton Orient
English League One
17.02.26	Leyton Orient - Plymouth Argyle	1:3 ✺
07.02.26	Stockport County - Leyton Orient	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Leyton Orient - Port Vale	0:1 ✺
27.01.26	Doncaster Rovers - Leyton Orient	3:0 ✺
24.01.26	Bolton Wanderers - Leyton Orient	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
30.08.25	Leyton Orient - Northampton Town	0:1
08.03.25	Leyton Orient - Northampton Town	1:2
19.10.24	Northampton Town - Leyton Orient	1:0
13.02.24	Leyton Orient - Northampton Town	4:3
24.10.23	Northampton Town - Leyton Orient	2:2
English League Two
02.01.23	Northampton Town - Leyton Orient	1:0
15.10.22	Leyton Orient - Northampton Town	0:0

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