Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 7

Date: 31 October 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	V Sport


	Derby County		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	6.5
	1.55	3.9	5.75
	1.55	4	6	Watch
	1.57	3.82	7.13
	1.5	4	6.5
	1.54	4.05	6.05	Watch
	1.54	3.95	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.72)	3.96 ↑ (3.65)	6.25 ↑ (4.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
61.1%

Draw
23.8%

Northampton Town
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

25.6%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2%

24.7%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Derby County's performance.

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	0%	6.2%

Derby County - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (30 of 32 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 35. Nelson C. 5. Bradley S. 3. Forsyth C. 4. Hourihane C. 12. Smith K. 7. Barkhuizen T. 8. Bird M. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 14. Washington C.	1. Burge L. (G) 22. Odimayo A. 6. Sherring S. 12. Monthe E. 33. Brough P. 17. McWilliams S. 21. Leonard M. 14. Koiki A. 11. Pinnock M. 16. Simpson T. 7. Hoskins S.
Substitutes
41. Brown D. 9. Collins J. 22. Fornah T. 17. Sibley L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J. 2. Wilson K.	27. Abimbola P. 24. Haynes R. 23. Hondermarck W. 20. Lintott H. 3. McGowan A. 26. Thompson M. (G) 15. Willis J.
Coaches
Warne P.	Brady J.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 9 and 20).

Recent matches Derby is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Northampton is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Derby have a series of guest games.

In this match Derby is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
28.10.23	Stevenage Borough - Derby County	3:1 ✺
24.10.23	Derby County - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
21.10.23	Shrewsbury Town - Derby County	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Notts County - Derby County	1:2 ✺
English League One
07.10.23	Cheltenham Town - Derby County	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLWT
- Northampton Town
English League One
28.10.23	Bristol Rovers - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
24.10.23	Northampton Town - Leyton Orient	2:2 ✺
21.10.23	Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
07.10.23	Shrewsbury Town - Northampton Town	1:0 ✺
03.10.23	Northampton Town - Reading	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
04.02.20	Derby County - Northampton Town	4:2
24.01.20	Northampton Town - Derby County	0:0
Club Friendly
25.07.17	Northampton Town - Derby County	1:0
18.07.15	Northampton Town - Derby County	0:1
31.07.12	Northampton Town - Derby County	N/A

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