Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 41

Date: 10 April 2023, Monday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: Oldham S. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		Gillingham

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	4.33
	1.98	3.1	4.1
	2	3.1	4
	1.97	3.21	4.65
	1.95	3.1	4.2
	1.93	3.25	4.33	Watch
	1.96	3.1	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.01)	3.14 ↑ (2.9)	4.22 ↓ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
47.7%

Draw
30%

Gillingham
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

32.2%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

32.2%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Gillingham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Northampton Town - Gillingham Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Northampton will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Northampton: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Northampton has the most likely position - 2 (21.69%), project points - 79, currently - 70, not chance of relegated, a good chance of prom. playoffs (52%), a good chance of promoted (54%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Gillingham has the most likely position - 19 (25%), project points - 53, currently - 47, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 10, importance 50, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Northampton won 3.

Northampton is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Gillingham is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Northampton is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Northampton won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Northampton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League Two
07.04.23	Newport County - Northampton Town	3:0 ✺
01.04.23	Northampton Town - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
25.03.23	Doncaster Rovers - Northampton Town	0:2 ✺
18.03.23	Northampton Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
14.03.23	Northampton Town - Mansfield Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LTWWW
- Gillingham FC
English League Two
07.04.23	Gillingham - Doncaster Rovers	1:0 ✺
01.04.23	Barrow - Gillingham	2:1 ✺
25.03.23	Gillingham - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
21.03.23	Gillingham - Crewe Alexandra	2:1 ✺
18.03.23	Walsall - Gillingham	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
12.11.22	Gillingham - Northampton Town	0:2
English League One
24.04.21	Gillingham - Northampton Town	2:2
29.12.20	Northampton Town - Gillingham	3:1
13.02.18	Northampton Town - Gillingham	1:2
21.10.17	Gillingham - Northampton Town	1:2
30.04.17	Northampton Town - Gillingham	0:0
12.11.16	Gillingham - Northampton Town	2:1

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