Match Info

ENGLAND: CHAMPIONSHIP - ROUND 25

Date: 30 December 2022, Friday

Location: Carrow Road (Norwich)

Referee: Webb D. (Eng)


	Norwich City		Reading

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.6	6
	1.63	3.8	5.5
	1.68	3.7	5.6
	1.62	3.75	5.4
	1.66	3.84	5.92
	1.67	3.6	5.25
	1.66	3.88	5.3	Watch
	1.65	3.85	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.76)	3.75 ↑ (3.56)	5.55 ↑ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Norwich City
57.6%

Draw
25.3%

Reading
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

26.3%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

26.3%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Norwich City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Reading has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norwich City than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reading than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Norwich City - Reading Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 10 and 12).

Norwich has the most likely position - 4 (9.43%), has project points - 70, has currently - 35, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (36%), has a small chance of promoted (15%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

Reading has the most likely position - 15 (6.72%), has project points - 62, has currently - 35, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (11%), has a very small chance of promoted (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 44, small importance 17, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Norwich won 3.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Norwich could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Norwich is a favorite.

There will not play in Norwich: Rowe J. (Injury) Sorensen J. (Injury)

There will not play in Reading: Moore L. (Injury) Tetek D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Reading: Dann S. (Injury) Hutchinson S. (Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Norwich won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 28-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Norwich won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 19-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Norwich City
English League Championship
26.12.22	Luton Town - Norwich City	2:1 ✺
17.12.22	Norwich City - Blackburn Rovers	0:2 ✺
10.12.22	Swansea City - Norwich City	0:1 ✺
12.11.22	Norwich City - Middlesbrough	1:2 ✺
05.11.22	Rotherham United - Norwich City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLWLW
- Reading
English League Championship
27.12.22	Reading - Swansea City	2:1 ✺
16.12.22	Birmingham City - Reading	3:2 ✺
10.12.22	Reading - Coventry City	1:0 ✺
12.11.22	Hull City - Reading	1:2 ✺
08.11.22	Watford - Reading	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
04.10.22	Reading - Norwich City	1:1
01.05.21	Norwich City - Reading	4:1
16.12.20	Reading - Norwich City	1:2
10.04.19	Norwich City - Reading	2:2
19.09.18	Reading - Norwich City	1:2
17.03.18	Norwich City - Reading	3:2
30.09.17	Reading - Norwich City	1:2

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