Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 25

Date: 1 January 2025, Wednesday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Luton Town		Norwich City

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.63	Watch
	2.55	3.3	2.7
	2.56	3.34	2.76	Watch
	2.6	3.32	2.74	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.7
	2.55	3.45	2.68	Watch
	2.56	3.34	2.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.29)	3.36 ↓ (3.57)	2.71 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
37%

Draw
28.1%

Norwich City
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

26.2%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

25.9%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Norwich City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norwich City than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	23.1%	26.9%

Luton Town - Norwich City Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 12 - 50%). Norwich will win (votes: 6 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 30% – 70%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 29. Holmes T. 6. McGuinness M. 3. Bell A. 14. Chong T. 8. Krauss T. 18. Clark J. 37. Nelson Z. 2. Walters R. 11. Adebayo E. 9. Morris C. (C)	1. Gunn A. (G) 3. Stacey J. 4. Duffy S. 6. Doyle C. 14. Chrisene B. 20. Slimane A. 26. Nunez M. 23. McLean K. (C) 11. Marcondes E. 25. Hernandez O. 7. Sainz B.
Substitutes
5. Andersen M. 19. Brown J. 27. Hashioka D. 23. Krul T. (G) 7. Moses V. 17. Mpanzu P. 13. Nakamba M. 25. Taylor J. 10. Woodrow C.	10. Barnes A. 33. Cordoba J. 17. Crnac A. 35. Fisher K. 18. Forson A. 21. Gordon K. 5. Hanley G. 12. Long G. (G) 29. Schwartau O.
Coaches
Edwards R.	Thorup J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Clark J. ↓, Nakamba M. ↑,
37', Slimane A. ↓, Crnac A. ↑,
38', Nelson Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
68', Hernandez O. ↓, Barnes A. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Nunez M. ⚽, Marcondes E. (A),
80', Sainz B. ↓, Cordoba J. ↑,
80', Nunez M. ↓, Schwartau O. ↑,
80', Chrisene B. ↓, Fisher K. ↑,
84', Adebayo E. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
84', Walters R. ↓, Moses V. ↑,
84', Krauss T. ↓, Woodrow C. ↑,
85', Nelson Z. ↓, Taylor J. ↑,
89', Doyle C. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Luton won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Luton: Johnson J. (Red Card) Lockyer T. (Heart Problems)

There will not play in Norwich: Sargent J. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Doughty A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Norwich: Forsyth G. (Knee Injury) Gibbs L. (Hamstring Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Luton won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14:18 (average 1.6:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10:11 (average 2:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League Championship
29.12.24	Swansea City - Luton Town	2:1 ✺
26.12.24	Bristol City - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.24	Luton Town - Derby County	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Blackburn Rovers - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
10.12.24	Luton Town - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLWLW
- Norwich City
English League Championship
29.12.24	Norwich City - Queens Park Rangers	1:1 ✺
26.12.24	Norwich City - Millwall	2:1 ✺
21.12.24	Sunderland - Norwich City	2:1 ✺
15.12.24	Norwich City - Burnley	1:2 ✺
10.12.24	Portsmouth - Norwich City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
30.11.24	Norwich City - Luton Town	4:2
26.12.22	Luton Town - Norwich City	2:1
18.10.22	Norwich City - Luton Town	0:1
06.03.21	Norwich City - Luton Town	3:0
02.12.20	Luton Town - Norwich City	3:1
English League Cup
05.09.20	Luton Town - Norwich City	3:1
Club Friendly
27.07.19	Luton Town - Norwich City	1:5

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