Match Info

Premier League - Round 25

Date: 6 February 2026, Friday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Leeds United		Nottingham Forest

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.5
	2.2	3.3	3.3
	2.15	3.45	3.45
	2.23	3.49	3.5
	2.16	3.47	3.57	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.3
	2.25	3.48	3.54	Watch
	2.22	3.25	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.37)	3.38 ↑ (3.37)	3.45 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
43.9%

Draw
28.3%

Nottingham Forest
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

28.5%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

28.1%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.4%	28.6%	19%

Leeds United - Nottingham Forest Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Leeds will win (votes: 22 - 52.4%). Nottingham will win (votes: 8 - 19%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 37.3% – 67.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 10 - 45.5%). Nottingham (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Tie (votes: 9 - 40.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Leeds (1.85) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Leeds (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.5 - Nottingham (3.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 13 - 48.1%). Nottingham (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Tie (votes: 9 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Darlow K. (G) 24. Justin J. 6. Rodon J. 5. Struijk P. 2. Bogle J. 44. Gruev I. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 11. Aaronson B. 3. Gudmundsson G. 19. Okafor N. 9. Calvert-Lewin D.	27. Ortega S. (G) 34. Aina O. 31. Milenkovic N. 44. Abbott Z. 4. Morato 6. Sangare I. 8. Anderson E. 16. Dominguez N. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 19. Igor Jesus
Substitutes
15. Bijol J. 23. Bornauw S. 29. Gnonto W. 7. James D. 8. Longstaff S. 1. Lucas Perri (G) 14. Nmecha L. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.	9. Awoniyi T. 23. Cunha 18. Gunn A. (G) 21. Hutchinson O. 20. Lucca L. 24. McAtee J. 14. Ndoye D. 25. Netz L. 22. Yates R.
Coaches
Farke D.	Dyche S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Bogle J. ⚽, Gruev I. (A),
30', 2 - 0, Okafor N. ⚽, Justin J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 3 - 0, Calvert-Lewin D. ⚽, Gruev I. (A),
54', Dominguez N. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
54', Igor Jesus ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
61', Okafor N. 🟨,
62', Sangare I. 🟨,
67', Gibbs-White M. ↓, Yates R. ↑,
67', Hudson-Odoi C. ↓, Ndoye D. ↑,
76', Abbott Z. ↓, Netz L. ↑,
79', Aaronson B. ↓, James D. ↑,
82', Okafor N. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
86', 3 - 1, Lucca L. ⚽, Hutchinson O. (A),
90+6', Bogle J. ↓, Bornauw S. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Nottingham may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Leeds might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Leeds: Stach A. (Hip Injury)

There will not play in Nottingham: John Victor (Knee Injury) Savona N. (Knee Injury) Williams N. (Red Card) Wood Ch. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Bijol J. (Hamstring Injury) Nmecha L. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Hudson-Odoi C. (Shoulder Injury) Sels M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:28. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 0.9:0.8).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Leeds: 0.58% Nottingham: 0.4%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7:3	4	9
13	Nottingham	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English Premier League
31.01.26	Leeds United - Arsenal	0:4 ✺
26.01.26	Everton - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Leeds United - Fulham	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Derby County - Leeds United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Newcastle United - Leeds United	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTWWL
- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
01.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Crystal Palace	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Nottingham Forest - Ferencvárosi	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
25.01.26	Brentford - Nottingham Forest	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Braga - Nottingham Forest	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
17.01.26	Nottingham Forest - Arsenal	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
09.11.25	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	3:1
Club Friendly
27.07.23	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:2
English Premier League
04.04.23	Leeds United - Nottingham Forest	2:1
05.02.23	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	1:0
English League Championship
08.02.20	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	2:0
10.08.19	Leeds United - Nottingham Forest	1:1
01.01.19	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	4:2

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