Match Info

Premier League - Round 36

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: City Ground (Nottingham)

Referee: Harrington T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nottingham Forest		Leicester City

	1	X	2
	1.38	5	7.5
	1.4	5	7.25
	1.39	5.2	8.4	Watch
	1.41	5.19	8.14
	1.42	5.08	7.54	Watch
	1.4	4.8	7.5
	1.41	5.14	8.35	Watch
	1.39	5.2	8.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.34)	5.08 ↓ (5.45)	7.89 ↓ (9.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nottingham Forest
68.8%

Draw
19%

Leicester City
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.9%

17.7%

10.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

10.6%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Leicester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-25.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nottingham Forest that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leicester City than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leicester City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.9%	8.6%	8.6%

Nottingham Forest - Leicester City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - Nottingham (2.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - Nottingham (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Nottingham Forest will win (56 of 66 users predict this - 84.85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.2% – 93.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nottingham Forest will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Nottingham (votes: 20 - 90.9%). Leicester (votes: 1 - 4.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Sels M. (G) 34. Aina O. 31. Milenkovic N. 4. Morato 7. Williams N. 6. Sangare I. 8. Anderson E. 16. Dominguez N. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 21. Elanga A. 11. Wood Ch.	41. Stolarczyk J. (G) 2. Justin J. 4. Coady C. 3. Faes W. 33. Thomas L. 6. Ndidi W. 22. Skipp O. 35. McAteer K. 18. Ayew J. 11. El Khannouss B. 9. Vardy J. (C)
Substitutes
44. Abbott Z. 9. Awoniyi T. 30. Boly W. 33. Carlos Miguel (G) 28. Danilo 20. Jota Silva 24. Sosa R. 15. Toffolo H. 22. Yates R.	40. Buonanotte F. 25. Coulibaly W. 20. Daka P. 91. Evans J. 31. Iversen D. (G) 16. Kristiansen V. 93. Monga J. 5. Okoli C. 24. Soumare B.
Coaches
Espirito Santo N.	van Nistelrooy R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Coady C. ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, Gibbs-White M. ⚽, Elanga A. (A),
39', Justin J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 2 - 1, Wood Ch. ⚽, Gibbs-White M. (A),
59', Thomas L. 🟨,
60', Morato 🟨,
60', Skipp O. ↓, Soumare B. ↑,
61', Ayew J. ↓, Buonanotte F. ↑,
69', Aina O. 🟨,
73', Anderson E. 🟨,
74', Dominguez N. ↓, Yates R. ↑,
77', Thomas L. ↓, Kristiansen V. ↑,
77', McAteer K. ↓, Monga J. ↑,
79', Buonanotte F. 🟨,
81', 2 - 2, Buonanotte F. ⚽, Vardy J. (A),
83', Sangare I. ↓, Awoniyi T. ↑,
90+1', Anderson E. ↓, Jota Silva ↑,
90+3', El Khannouss B. ↓, Okoli C. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

Leicester is Relegated to Championship

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 3.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Leicester may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nottingham is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Nottingham: Hudson-Odoi C. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Leicester: De Cordova-Reid B. (Injury) Fatawu I. (Knee Injury) Hermansen M. (Groin Injury) Mavididi S. (Muscle Injury) Pereira R. (Muscle Injury) Souttar H. (Ankle Injury) Winks H. (Coach's decision)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Murillo (Thigh Injury) da Silva Moreira E. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Nottingham won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:6. (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
05.05.25	Crystal Palace - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
01.05.25	Nottingham Forest - Brentford	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
27.04.25	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
21.04.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Nottingham Forest	1:2 ✺
12.04.25	Nottingham Forest - Everton	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TLLWL
- Leicester City
English Premier League
03.05.25	Leicester City - Southampton	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Leicester City	3:0 ✺
20.04.25	Leicester City - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Leicester City	2:2 ✺
07.04.25	Leicester City - Newcastle United	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
25.10.24	Leicester City - Nottingham Forest	1:3
14.01.23	Nottingham Forest - Leicester City	2:0
03.10.22	Leicester City - Nottingham Forest	4:0
English FA Cup
06.02.22	Nottingham Forest - Leicester City	4:1
English League Championship
19.02.14	Nottingham Forest - Leicester City	2:2
09.11.13	Leicester City - Nottingham Forest	0:2
04.05.13	Nottingham Forest - Leicester City	2:3

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