Match Info

Premier League - Round 18

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: City Ground (Nottingham)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nottingham Forest		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.33	1.57
	5.3	4.45	1.6
	5.09	4.3	1.64
	5.27	4.49	1.62	Watch
	5	4.2	1.57
	5.44	4.53	1.64	Watch
	5.33	4.2	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.24 ↑ (4.88)	4.36 ↑ (4.34)	1.61 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nottingham Forest
18.3%

Draw
22%

Manchester City
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.5%

21.9%

58.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.2%

21.6%

59.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.8%	7%	85.2%

Nottingham Forest - Manchester City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Nottingham (1.81) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Nottingham (5.21) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (109 of 128 users predict this - 85.16%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79% – 91.32%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (45 of 46 users predict this - 97.83%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 50 Selected Experts predict this event. Nottingham (votes: 4 - 8%). Man City (votes: 46 - 92%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. John Victor (G) 37. Savona N. 31. Milenkovic N. 5. Murillo 3. Williams N. 8. Anderson E. 16. Dominguez N. 21. Hutchinson O. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 19. Igor Jesus	25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 3. Dias R. 24. Gvardiol J. 33. O'Reilly N. 20. Silva B. (C) 14. Nico 4. Reijnders T. 10. Cherki R. 47. Foden P. 9. Haaland E.
Substitutes
44. Abbott Z. 9. Awoniyi T. 29. Bakwa D. 12. Douglas Luiz 15. Kalimuendo A. 24. McAtee J. 4. Morato 26. Sels M. (G) 35. Zinchenko O.	6. Ake N. 92. Heskey R. 45. Khusanov A. 82. Lewis R. 56. McAidoo R. 63. Mukasa D. 16. Rodri 26. Savinho 1. Trafford J. (G)
Coaches
Dyche S.	Guardiola P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Dias R. 🟨,
43', Anderson E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', 0 - 1, Reijnders T. ⚽, Cherki R. (A),
54', 1 - 1, Hutchinson O. ⚽, Igor Jesus (A),
59', O'Reilly N. 🟨,
73', Reijnders T. ↓, Savinho ↑,
75', Guardiola P. 🟨,
83', 1 - 2, Cherki R. ⚽, Gvardiol J. (A),
87', Dominguez N. ↓, Awoniyi T. ↑,
89', Cherki R. ↓, Ake N. ↑,
90+2', Hudson-Odoi C. ↓, Bakwa D. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 1.

In recent matches, Nottingham has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Man City is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Nottingham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Nottingham has had a series of away games.

In this match, Man City is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Nottingham: Aina O. (Hamstring Injury) Boly W. (International duty) Ndoye D. (Injury) Sangare I. (International duty) Wood Ch. (Knee Injury) Yates R. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Man City: Ait Nouri R. (International duty) Bobb O. (Hamstring Injury) Doku J. (Leg Injury) Kovacic M. (Heel Injury) Marmoush O. (International duty)

There are questionable in Man City: Rodri (Hamstring Injury) Stones J. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 2:16. (average 0.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Nottingham won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
22.12.25	Fulham - Nottingham Forest	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Nottingham Forest - Tottenham Hotspur	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Utrecht - Nottingham Forest	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Everton - Nottingham Forest	3:0 ✺
03.12.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Nottingham Forest	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWWLW
- Manchester City
English Premier League
20.12.25	Manchester City - West Ham United	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
17.12.25	Manchester City - Brentford	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
14.12.25	Crystal Palace - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Real Madrid - Manchester City	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Manchester City - Sunderland	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
27.04.25	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	0:2
English Premier League
08.03.25	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	1:0
04.12.24	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	3:0
28.04.24	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	0:2
23.09.23	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	2:0
18.02.23	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	1:1
31.08.22	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	6:0

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