Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: City Ground (Nottingham)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nottingham Forest		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	3	3.25	2.45
	2.55	3.3	2.7
	3	3.25	2.52
	3.01	3.28	2.55
	2.85	3.34	2.63	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.45
	3.15	3.32	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.57)	3.26 ↓ (3.43)	2.53 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nottingham Forest
32.8%

Draw
29.4%

Aston Villa
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

28%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

28.2%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	23.5%	47.1%

Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Nottingham will win (votes: 14 - 28.6%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 23 - 46.9%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 24.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 32.9% – 60.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Aston Villa (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Nottingham (1.95) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Nottingham (votes: 1 - 25%). Aston Villa (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Ortega S. (G) 34. Aina O. 31. Milenkovic N. 4. Morato 3. Williams N. 21. Hutchinson O. 16. Dominguez N. 8. Anderson E. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 19. Igor Jesus 11. Wood Ch.	23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 24. Onana A. 8. Tielemans Y. 7. McGinn J. (C) 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
44. Abbott Z. 29. Bakwa D. 77. Blake Z. 65. Hanks J. 20. Lucca L. 24. McAtee J. 26. Sels M. (G) 61. Sinclair J. 51. Whitehall A. 67. Willows K. (G) 22. Yates R.	18. Abraham T. 31. Bailey L. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 21. Douglas Luiz 9. Elliott H. 16. Garcia A. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 5. Mings T. 19. Sancho J. 64. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Pereira V.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Onana A. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
71', 1 - 0, Wood Ch. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Aina O. ↓, Abbott Z. ↑,
78', Tielemans Y. 🟨,
79', Digne L. ↓, Douglas Luiz ↑,
79', McGinn J. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
79', Buendia E. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
90', Igor Jesus ↓, Yates R. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 1.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Nottingham: Awoniyi T. (Inactive) Boly W. (Knee Injury) Hudson-Odoi C. (Injury) John Victor (Knee Injury) Netz L. (Inactive) Savona N. (Knee Injury) da Silva Moreira E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Injury) Barkley R. (Inactive) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Madjo B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Murillo (Muscle Injury) Ndoye D. (Injury) Sangare I. (Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Onana A. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:31. (average 1.5:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Nottingham won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Nottingham Forest - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 37.35%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Aston Villa - the odds 2.77 are the expected chance of winning is 34.66%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
24.04.26	Sunderland - Nottingham Forest	0:5 ✺
19.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Porto	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
12.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Porto - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWWTT
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
25.04.26	Fulham - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Aston Villa - Sunderland	4:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.04.26	Aston Villa - Bologna	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
12.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Bologna - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
12.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:1
03.01.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	3:1
05.04.25	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	2:1
14.12.24	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	2:1
24.02.24	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	4:2
05.11.23	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	2:0
08.04.23	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	2:0

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