Match Info

EFL Trophy

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Meadow Lane (Nottingham)

Referee: Wright P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Notts County		Barnsley

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.6	2.2	Watch
	2.68	3.45	2.32	Watch
	2.75	3.7	2.36
	1.63	4.13	4.66	Watch
	2.74	3.6	2.31	Watch
	2.6	3.5	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.63)	3.66 ↑ (3.53)	2.68 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Notts County
38.3%

Draw
26.1%

Barnsley
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

25.6%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

24.8%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Notts County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Barnsley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barnsley could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Notts County - Barnsley Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Notts County will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Barnsley will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Notts County (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Notts County (2.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Notts County (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Notts County (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Griffiths H. (G) 28. Macari L. 12. Ness L. 4. Bedeau J. 17. Kouhyar Q. 8. Norburn O. (C) 14. Iorpenda T. 47. Bennetts K. 16. Luker J. 26. Hall T. 29. Jatta A.	51. Flavell K. (G) 18. Rooney J. 6. de Gevigney M. 29. Barratt C. 23. Farrugia N. 30. Bland J. 45. Yoganathan V. 7. Vickers C. 3. Russell J. 19. Cleary R. 40. Keillor-Dunn D. (C)
Substitutes
23. Aljofree S. 6. Hinchy J. 53. Iwunze H. 36. Jarvis W. 13. Perott M. (G) 20. Robertson S. 25. Tsaroulla N.	48. Connell L. 32. Earl J. 39. Farrell L. 31. Graham K. 8. Phillips A. 12. Smith J. (G) 27. Watson T.
Coaches
Paterson M.	Hourihane C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Bland J. 🟨,
9', 1 - 0, Luker J. ⚽, Kouhyar Q. (A),
45+1', Norburn O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Luker J. ↓, Robertson S. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Keillor-Dunn D. ⚽, Cleary R. (A),
53', Bland J. 🟨,
55', Keillor-Dunn D. ↓, Watson T. ↑,
56', Robertson S. 🟨,
64', Kouhyar Q. ↓, Tsaroulla N. ↑,
65', Iorpenda T. ↓, Jarvis W. ↑,
65', Vickers C. ↓, Connell L. ↑,
72', Yoganathan V. ↓, Phillips A. ↑,
73', Cleary R. ↓, Farrell L. ↑,
73', Rooney J. ↓, Earl J. ↑,
78', Jatta A. ↓, Iwunze H. ↑,
81', Tsaroulla N. 🟨,
84', Watson T. 🟨,
90', 2 - 1, Hall T. ⚽,
90+3', Hall T. 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Barnsley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Barnsley has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Notts County won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Barnsley - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 39.91%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Notts County
English League Two
27.09.25	Crewe Alexandra - Notts County	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Notts County - Crawley Town	4:0 ✺
13.09.25	Gillingham - Notts County	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Notts County - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Lincoln City - Notts County	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLWL
- Barnsley FC
English League One
27.09.25	Barnsley - Port Vale	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Barnsley - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:6 ✺
English League One
20.09.25	Blackpool - Barnsley	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Barnsley - Reading	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	Barnsley - Huddersfield Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
10.11.18	Barnsley - Notts County	4:0
English League One
14.04.15	Notts County - Barnsley	1:1
21.10.14	Barnsley - Notts County	2:3

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