Match Info

League Two - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: SMH Group Stadium (Chesterfield)

Referee: Parsons T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Chesterfield		Notts County

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.25
	2.18	3.35	3.2	Watch
	2.14	3.45	3.35
	2.15	3.22	3.32	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.25
	2.12	3.4	3.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (2.09)	3.35 ↑ (3.33)	3.28 ↓ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chesterfield
43.9%

Draw
27.8%

Notts County
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

27.8%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

27.1%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chesterfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Notts County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Chesterfield - Notts County Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Chesterfield will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Notts County will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Boot R. (G) 29. Curtis S. 6. McFadzean K. (C) 26. Swinkels S. 19. Gordon L. 36. Braybrooke S. 8. Stirk R. 24. Markanday D. 7. Mandeville L. 17. Dobra A. 10. Bonis L.	31. Belshaw J. (G) 12. Ness L. 3. McDonald R. (C) 4. Bedeau J. 25. Tsaroulla N. 8. Norburn O. 14. Iorpenda T. 10. Jones J. 20. Robertson S. 16. Luker J. 29. Jatta A.
Substitutes
28. Berry-McNally J. 25. Dickson W. 44. Donacien J. 9. Grigg W. 1. Hemming Z. (G) 4. Naylor T. 46. Pearce T.	47. Bennetts K. 11. Grant C. 21. Griffiths H. (G) 26. Hall T. 17. Kouhyar Q. 39. Ndlovu L. 18. Palmer M.
Coaches
Cook P.	Paterson M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Bonis L. (Penalty Awarded),
28', 0 - 1, Luker J. ⚽, Iorpenda T. (A),
36', Curtis S. 🟨,
39', Dobra A. ↓, Dickson W. ↑,
42', Jones J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Curtis S. ↓, Donacien J. ↑,
52', Luker J. 🟨,
62', Gordon L. ↓, Pearce T. ↑,
64', Tsaroulla N. 🟨,
68', Luker J. ↓, Grant C. ↑,
69', Jones J. ↓, Kouhyar Q. ↑,
76', Mandeville L. ↓, Naylor T. ↑,
77', Bonis L. ↓, Grigg W. ↑,
78', Jatta A. ↓, Ndlovu L. ↑,
88', Ness L. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chesterfield won 3.

Chesterfield is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Notts County's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chesterfield might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Chesterfield: Hobson B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Chesterfield: Ladapo F. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Notts County: Platt M. (Inactive) Tangen H. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chesterfield won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:28. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Chesterfield won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.7:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	17:14	3	15

Last Results with these Odds

Chesterfield - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.21%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chesterfield
English League Two
02.05.26	Swindon Town - Chesterfield	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Chesterfield - Crewe Alexandra	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Fleetwood Town - Chesterfield	1:1 ✺
14.04.26	Chesterfield - Grimsby Town	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Chesterfield - Tranmere Rovers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWTWT
- Notts County
English League Two
02.05.26	Notts County - Bristol Rovers	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Colchester United - Notts County	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Notts County - Barnet	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Cambridge United - Notts County	4:0 ✺
06.04.26	Notts County - Newport County	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
14.03.26	Notts County - Chesterfield	2:3
26.12.25	Chesterfield - Notts County	2:0
15.03.25	Notts County - Chesterfield	1:2
12.10.24	Chesterfield - Notts County	2:2
English National League
13.05.23	Chesterfield - Notts County	2:3 penalties
11.02.23	Chesterfield - Notts County	1:2
20.08.22	Notts County - Chesterfield	2:2

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