Match Info

League Two - Round 45

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: SMH Group Stadium (Chesterfield)

Referee: Bell J. (Eng)


	Chesterfield		Crewe Alexandra

	1	X	2
	1.49	4.33	5
	1.55	4.25	5.4
	1.54	4.52	5.74
	1.57	4.04	5.38	Watch
	1.53	4	5
	1.55	4.39	5.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.77)	4.26 ↑ (3.7)	5.26 ↑ (4.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chesterfield
60.5%

Draw
21.9%

Crewe Alexandra
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

25.1%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

24.2%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chesterfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chesterfield's performance.

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chesterfield that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Chesterfield - Crewe Alexandra Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Chesterfield (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Chesterfield will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Boot R. (G) 29. Curtis S. 6. McFadzean K. (C) 26. Swinkels S. 19. Gordon L. 36. Braybrooke S. 8. Stirk R. 24. Markanday D. 7. Mandeville L. 17. Dobra A. 10. Bonis L.	41. Lawlor I. (G) 2. Billington L. 25. Pond A. 5. Demetriou M. (C) 3. Hutchinson R. 23. Powell J. 8. Thomas C. 26. O'Reilly T. 17. Holicek M. 24. March J. 36. Tezgel E.
Substitutes
28. Berry-McNally J. 25. Dickson W. 44. Donacien J. 13. Fleck J. 9. Grigg W. 4. Naylor T. 46. Pearce T.	1. Booth T. (G) 30. Dancey S. 14. Finney C. 32. Moore L. 15. Rankine D. 29. Thibaut A. 10. Tracey S.
Coaches
Cook P.	Bell L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Bonis L. ⚽, Markanday D. (A),
42', Dobra A. 🟨,
45', Braybrooke S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Thomas C. ↓, Thibaut A. ↑,
62', Pond A. 🟨,
64', O'Reilly T. ↓, Moore L. ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Bonis L. ⚽, Mandeville L. (A),
72', Tezgel E. ↓, Tracey S. ↑,
72', Demetriou M. ↓, Dancey S. ↑,
73', Mandeville L. ↓, Naylor T. ↑,
78', Hutchinson R. ↓, Finney C. ↑,
81', Bonis L. ↓, Grigg W. ↑,
82', Gordon L. ↓, Donacien J. ↑,
82', Dobra A. ↓, Berry-McNally J. ↑,
87', Braybrooke S. ↓, Fleck J. ↑,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 and 10)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chesterfield won 1.

Chesterfield is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Crewe has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Crewe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chesterfield is the team to beat.

There will not play in Chesterfield: Grigg W. (Injury) Hobson B. (Inactive) McFadzean K. (Red Card)

There will not play in Crewe: Lunt O. (Back Injury) Tabiner J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Chesterfield: Dickson W. (Inactive) Ladapo F. (Inactive) Pearce T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Crewe: Lankester J. (Inactive)

We predict that Chesterfield will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Chesterfield won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:22. (average 1.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chesterfield won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Chesterfield: 9.07% Crewe: 3.91%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	12:7	5	18
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	17:14	3	15

Last Results with these Odds

Chesterfield - the odds 1.77 are the expected chance of winning is 52.41%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Crewe Alexandra - the odds 4.12 are the expected chance of winning is 22.52%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chesterfield
English League Two
18.04.26	Fleetwood Town - Chesterfield	1:1 ✺
14.04.26	Chesterfield - Grimsby Town	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Chesterfield - Tranmere Rovers	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Barrow - Chesterfield	0:1 ✺
03.04.26	Chesterfield - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWTWW
- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
18.04.26	Crewe Alexandra - Milton Keynes Dons	1:3 ✺
11.04.26	Grimsby Town - Crewe Alexandra	3:2 ✺
06.04.26	Crewe Alexandra - Salford City	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Accrington Stanley - Crewe Alexandra	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Crewe Alexandra - Oldham Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
22.11.25	Crewe Alexandra - Chesterfield	3:3
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Crewe Alexandra - Chesterfield	7:1
English League Two
01.03.25	Chesterfield - Crewe Alexandra	1:3
17.08.24	Crewe Alexandra - Chesterfield	0:5
26.12.17	Chesterfield - Crewe Alexandra	0:2
09.09.17	Crewe Alexandra - Chesterfield	5:1
English EFL Trophy
08.11.16	Crewe Alexandra - Chesterfield	0:2

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