The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alcione 38.9%
Draw 30%
Desenzano Calvina 31.1%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
45.3%
29.5%
25.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
47.6%
31%
24%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alcione has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alcione's form might have worsened.
Desenzano Calvina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Desenzano Calvina's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcione than the current prediction. (+8.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alcione, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Desenzano Calvina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Alcione - Desenzano Calvina Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Raffaelli F. (G) 3. Chierichetti P. 25. Pirola F. (C) 4. Miculi A. 19. Trapani N. 18. Lopes E. 16. Lanzi J. 30. Rebaudo R. 10. Pitou J. 11. Morselli F. 14. Rolfini A.
1. Minelli S. (G) 70. Parlato M. 19. Pilati A. 6. Panelli T. 3. Giorgi L. 43. Lupano L. 7. Moscati M. 77. Liberati F. 24. Biondi K. 9. Santini C. (C) 30. Procaccio A.
Substitutes
56. Andreassi D. 2. Baldacchino S. 94. Bertolotti F. 17. Braida A. 6. Ciappellano D. 81. Gallazzi F. 23. Galli G. 27. Lione M. 31. Marconi M. 67. Mocchi T. 8. Muroni M. 69. Nava L. (G) 20. Puzzoli G. 5. Sadotti E. 98. Zini L.
20. Andreis D. 49. Baldi L. 12. Bastianoni F. (G) 23. Bono F. 22. Cassin M. (G) 15. De Francesco A. 33. Dos Santos E. 17. Onofrio S. 93. Reggiori P. 8. Tomaselli S. 34. Ubaldi L.
Coaches
Cusatis G.
Gaburro M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (3 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Rolfini A. ⚽,
17', 2 - 0, Pirola F. ⚽, Pitou J. (A),
35', Lopes E. ↓, Sadotti E. ↑,
42', 3 - 0, Rolfini A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Liberati F. ↓, Ubaldi L. ↑,
59', 3 - 1, Procaccio A. ⚽,
61', Rebaudo R. 🟨,
65', Rolfini A. 🟨,
68', 4 - 1, Morselli F. ⚽,
73', Moscati M. 🟨,
74', Pitou J. 🟨,
74', Trapani N. ↓, Braida A. ↑,
74', Rolfini A. ↓, Zini L. ↑,
75', Parlato M. ↓, Tomaselli S. ↑,
78', Pilati A. ↓, Reggiori P. ↑,
78', Giorgi L. ↓, Baldi L. ↑,
Preview
A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 10th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals) and 8th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals)).
Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.
Alcione may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Alcione has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:2 (averaging 1.3:0.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Alcione against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals (averaging 1.5:0.5 per game).
Italy
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Raffaelli F. (G) 
Lopes E. 
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