Match Info

J2 League - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Resonac Dome Oita (Oita) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	16:00	K-Ball
Japan	17:00	DAZN Japan


	Oita Trinita		Montedio Yamagata

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.2	2.55
	2.55	2.95	2.55
	2.55	3.05	2.55	Watch
	2.77	3.3	2.68
	2.65	3.23	2.65	Watch
	2.65	3.15	2.6
	2.63	3.5	2.59	Watch
	2.6	3.15	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (2.99)	3.19 ↓ (3.33)	2.6 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Oita Trinita
35.3%

Draw
29%

Montedio Yamagata
35.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.2%

28%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

27.1%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oita Trinita has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Montedio Yamagata might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	66.7%	22.2%

Oita Trinita - Montedio Yamagata Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Oita Trinita will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Mun Kyung-Gun (G) 3. Miyakawa A. 31. Matheus Pereira 6. Misao Y. 16. Shige T. 19. Hayashida K. 7. Nishimura Y. 14. Utsumoto S. 10. Matheus Leiria 18. Patrick Verhon 9. Arima K.	34. Sato R. (G) 15. Kawai A. 38. Morioka R. 2. Lee Dong-Hee 5. Sugii H. 17. Terayama T. 7. Nakamura R. 8. Doi S. 14. Yanagimachi K. 9. Takahashi J. 10. Kida R.
Substitutes
34. Furukawa D. 17. Kimoto M. 28. Kiyotake H. 44. Moriyama K. 2. Oda I. 8. Sakakibara K. 1. Tanaka Y. (G) 30. Tone I. 21. Udo S.	55. Horikane S. 77. Kawana R. 25. Kokubu S. 39. Mori K. 13. Nodake H. 49. Sakamoto K. 1. Shibuya T. (G) 18. Yokoyama R. 20. Yoshio Kaina
Coaches
Yomoda S.	Yokouchi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', 1 - 0, Patrick Verhon ⚽, Miyakawa A. (A),
55', Yanagimachi K. ↓, Kawana R. ↑,
56', 1 - 1, Sugii H. ⚽, Takahashi J. (A),
58', Nishimura Y. 🟨,
70', Patrick Verhon ↓, Kimoto M. ↑,
76', Arima K. ↓, Furukawa D. ↑,
76', Nishimura Y. ↓, Sakakibara K. ↑,
82', Kida R. ↓, Yokoyama R. ↑,
82', Doi S. ↓, Horikane S. ↑,
82', Shige T. ↓, Udo S. ↑,
82', Matheus Leiria ↓, Kiyotake H. ↑,
89', Takahashi J. ↓, Mori K. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Furukawa D. ⚽,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 16th and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oita Trinita won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Montedio Yamagata may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Oita Trinita has recorded 2 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:27 (averaging 0.7:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Oita Trinita against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 6:12 goals (averaging 0.8:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Oita Trinita	12	4	6	2	16:9	7	18
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	4	1	7	11:11	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Oita Trinita - the odds 2.99 are the expected chance of winning is 31.22%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 League
26.09.26	Oita Trinita - Fujieda MYFC	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Consadole Sapporo - Oita Trinita	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Omiya Ardija - Oita Trinita	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Oita Trinita - Imabari	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Oita Trinita	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TTTTL
- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
26.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Kataller Toyama	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Albirex Niigata - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Tochigi - Montedio Yamagata	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
07.06.26	Oita Trinita - Montedio Yamagata	1:0
Japan J2 League
02.11.25	Oita Trinita - Montedio Yamagata	1:2
06.05.25	Montedio Yamagata - Oita Trinita	3:0
07.09.24	Oita Trinita - Montedio Yamagata	0:3
09.06.24	Montedio Yamagata - Oita Trinita	0:0
29.07.23	Oita Trinita - Montedio Yamagata	0:1
17.05.23	Montedio Yamagata - Oita Trinita	5:0

Upcoming Matches