Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 32

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Carlos Osorio (Oliveira de Azemeis)

Referee: Melo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Portugal	Sport TV1


	Oliveirense		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3
	2.3	3.1	2.75
	2.2	3.35	3
	2.24	3.38	3.32
	2.17	3.6	3.07	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3
	2.14	3.54	3.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.61)	3.37 ↑ (3.35)	3.04 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oliveirense
42.4%

Draw
27.3%

Lusitânia
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

27.6%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

26.8%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oliveirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oliveirense's performance.

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lusitânia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oliveirense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lusitânia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Oliveirense - Lusitânia Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Oliveirense will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ribeiro R. (C) 4. Bura 75. Namora N. 19. Lopes A. 2. Douglas Borel 99. Sabino 90. Brito T. 26. Bastos L. 17. Lucas Henrique 88. Rodriguez Y. 21. Silva J.	32. Vitor Hugo (G) 60. Danny 6. Alhassan I. 3. Josue Sa 16. Rocha L. 27. Fabinho 5. Silverio (C) 88. Teixeira M. 11. Pereira M. 9. Silva J. 7. Martins R.
Substitutes
5. Filipe Alves 40. Greis N. (G) 11. Joanderson 7. Joao Adriano 9. Martelo P. 3. Mateus Raniel 80. Onohara K. 14. Pereira D. 13. Santos V.	29. Cerveira T. 21. Joao Vasco 80. Manel 28. Mesquita T. 24. Mimito 99. Platiny 1. Ricardo M. (G) 77. Tiago Dias 8. Tokinho Doria
Coaches
Silva R.	Miguel Pedro

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Teixeira M. ↓, Tokinho Doria ↑,
26', Rocha L. 🟨,
36', Brito T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Silva J. ↓, Joao Vasco ↑,
61', Martins R. ↓, Platiny ↑,
71', Bastos L. ↓, Joanderson ↑,
71', Brito T. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
83', Sabino ↓, Martelo P. ↑,
84', Fabinho ↓, Mimito ↑,
89', Douglas Borel 🟨,
90', Rocha L. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 7).

Recent form of Oliveirense has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lusitânia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Oliveirense won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Oliveirense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lusitania FC	6	5	1	0	11:4	7	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 2
27.04.26	Chaves - Oliveirense	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Oliveirense - Benfica B	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Leixões - Oliveirense	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Oliveirense - Portimonense	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Marítimo - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLLL
- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
26.04.26	Lusitânia - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Portimonense - Lusitânia	3:2 ✺
13.04.26	Lusitânia - Porto B	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Leiria - Lusitânia	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Lusitânia - Académico de Viseu	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
22.12.25	Lusitânia - Oliveirense	0:1
Portuguese Liga 3
05.03.22	Oliveirense - Lusitânia	4:4
07.12.21	Lusitânia - Oliveirense	0:1

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