Match Info

Date: 4 October 2022, Tuesday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	CMore, CMore Sport
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Olympique Marseille		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.3	3.1
	2.3	3.3	3.1
	2.33	3.4	3.3
	2.35	3.35	3.1
	2.37	3.39	3.21
	2.25	3.4	3.1
	2.3	3.48	3.2
	2.4	3.3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.19)	3.37 ↓ (3.47)	3.17 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
41.2%

Draw
28.5%

Sporting Lisbon
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

27.4%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

28.2%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.5%	16.8%	47.7%

Olympique Marseille - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: 107 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 38 - 35.5%). Sporting will win (votes: 51 - 47.7%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 16.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 38.2% – 57.2%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Marseille has currently - 0, has a very small chance of 1st (3%), has a small chance of 2nd (8%), has a chance of 3rd (23%), has a small chance of round of 16 (12%), has a very small chance of qtrs (4%), has a very small chance of semis (1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Sporting has currently - 6, has a good chance of 1st (59%), has a chance of 2nd (28%), has a small chance of 3rd (10%), has a good chance of round of 16 (86%), has a chance of qtrs (33%), has a small chance of semis (11%), has a very small chance of final (3%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

This event has big quality 74, importance 44, match rating 59. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Marseille is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sporting is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Marseille will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Marseille: Kolasinac S. (Knock) Ruiz P. (Injury)

There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Cabral J. (Injury) Coates S. (Thigh Injury) Porro P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting: Neto (Knee Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Marseille won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Marseille won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
30.09.22	Angers - Olympique Marseille	0:3 ✺
18.09.22	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.09.22	Olympique Marseille - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
10.09.22	Olympique Marseille - Lille	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.09.22	Tottenham Hotspur - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WTLWL
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
30.09.22	Sporting Lisbon - Gil Vicente	3:1 ✺
17.09.22	Boavista - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.09.22	Sporting Lisbon - Tottenham Hotspur	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
10.09.22	Sporting Lisbon - Portimonense	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.09.22	Eintracht Frankfurt - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
28.07.18	Sporting Lisbon - Olympique Marseille	1:1
18.07.17	Olympique Marseille - Sporting Lisbon	2:1

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