Match Info

J3 League - Round 12

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Hanazono Rugby Stadium (Higashiosaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Osaka		Matsumoto Yamaga

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	3.25
	2.07	3.15	3.3
	2.06	3.36	3.53
	2.11	3.3	3.48	Watch
	2.05	3	3.3
	2.03	3.3	3.65	Watch
	2.07	3.15	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.98)	3.19 ↓ (3.3)	3.4 (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osaka
44.5%

Draw
28.6%

Matsumoto Yamaga
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

27.5%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

26.8%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Osaka - Matsumoto Yamaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Osaka (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Matsumoto Yamaga (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yamamoto T. (G) 37. Tsutsumi S. 3. Kawakami R. 23. Akiyama T. 6. Tachino S. 24. Sato R. 8. Haga A. 27. Sawazaki R. 51. Nishimura M. 19. Masuda S. 9. Shimada T.	1. Ouchi I. (G) 44. Nonomura T. 27. Ninomiya J. 36. Matsumura G. 24. Ogawa D. 15. Yamamoto K. 18. Ohashi H. 40. Higuchi D. 22. Saso K. 10. Kikui Y. 42. Tanaka S.
Substitutes
16. Hashimoto R. 22. Hayashida K. 68. Hirabuki G. (G) 7. Kitsui T. 10. Kubo R. 88. Matsumoto K. 18. Natsukawa Y. 14. Sumida S. 25. Takei S.	11. Asakawa H. 49. Homma J. 13. Ishiyama A. 35. Kanda S. (G) 30. Kokubu R. 16. Miyabe T. 41. Murakoshi K. 19. Sugita H. 46. Yasunaga R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Ninomiya J. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Shimada T. ⚽, Sato R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Saso K. ↓, Murakoshi K. ↑,
46', Kawakami R. 🟨,
56', Masuda S. 🟨,
59', Haga A. ↓, Takei S. ↑,
59', Masuda S. ↓, Kitsui T. ↑,
67', Matsumura G. ↓, Asakawa H. ↑,
74', Takei S. 🟨,
77', Ogawa D. ↓, Homma J. ↑,
77', Yamamoto K. ↓, Yasunaga R. ↑,
78', Sato R. ↓, Kubo R. ↑,
78', Shimada T. ↓, Matsumoto K. ↑,
88', Kitsui T. 🟨,
89', Ohashi H. ↓, Kokubu R. ↑,
90+3', 🟨,
90+4', Tsutsumi S. ↓, Hayashida K. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 10).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Matsumoto Yamaga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Osaka is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Osaka won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Osaka won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Osaka
Japan J3 League
03.05.25	Tochigi City - Osaka	2:1 ✺
18.04.25	Osaka - Thespakusatsu Gunma	4:3 ✺
12.04.25	Osaka - Vanraure Hachinohe	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Osaka	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Osaka - Azul Claro Numazu	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWLW
- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
03.05.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Zweigen Kanazawa	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2 ✺
20.04.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Tochigi City	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.04.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Albirex Niigata	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
14.07.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	2:0
23.03.24	Osaka - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0
03.09.23	Osaka - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:1
03.05.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	1:0

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