Match Info

GERMANY: 2. BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 16

Date: 9 December 2023, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top event, Sport 1
Greece	Nova Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Slovenia	Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay


	Osnabrück		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	9.5	4.75	1.36	Watch
	8	4.75	1.39	Watch
	8.5	4.75	1.35	Watch
	8.71	5.11	1.38
	8.87	5.16	1.38
	8.5	4.75	1.3	Watch
	8.2	4.9	1.36	Watch
	8.4	4.9	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.59 ↑ (5.3)	4.88 ↑ (4.44)	1.36 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osnabrück
11%

Draw
19.4%

St. Pauli
69.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.8%

21.3%

60.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.5%

20.9%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osnabrück has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Osnabrück's form might have worsened.

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St. Pauli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osnabrück than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Osnabrück, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St. Pauli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	9.1%	72.7%

Osnabrück - St. Pauli Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Osnabrück will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 54.1% – 91.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Kuhn P. (G) 16. Rorig H. 4. Gyamfi M. (C) 25. Wiemann N. 3. Kleinhansl F. 5. Ajdini B. 27. Cuisance M. 26. Gnaase D. 8. Tesche R. 7. Niemann N. 9. Engelhardt E.	22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 3. Mets K. 2. Saliakas M. 7. Irvine J. (C) 10. Hartel M. 23. Treu P. 17. Afolayan O. 11. Eggestein J. 26. Saad E.
Substitutes
17. Conteh C. 14. Diakhite O. 1. Grill L. (G) 18. Kehl L. 13. Kunze L. 11. Makridis C. 6. Thalhammer M. 23. Verhoek J. 32. Wulff J.	14. Amenyido E. 16. Boukhalfa C. 30. Burchert S. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 9. Maurides 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 21. Ritzka L. 15. Sinani D.
Coaches
Koschinat U.	Hurzeler F.

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

Osnabrück has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

St. Pauli is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Osnabrück could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match St. Pauli is indisputable favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Osnabrück won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Osnabrück won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Osnabrück
German 2 Bundesliga
01.12.23	Schalke 04 - Osnabrück	4:0 ✺
25.11.23	Osnabrück - Magdeburg	0:2 ✺
11.11.23	Eintracht Braunschweig - Osnabrück	3:2 ✺
04.11.23	Osnabrück - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
27.10.23	Greuther Fürth - Osnabrück	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLTL
- FC St. Pauli
German DFB Pokal
05.12.23	Homburg - St. Pauli	1:4 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
01.12.23	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	2:2 ✺
25.11.23	Hansa Rostock - St. Pauli	2:3 ✺
10.11.23	St. Pauli - Hannover	0:0 ✺
03.11.23	Elversberg - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
21.03.21	Osnabrück - St. Pauli	1:2
27.11.20	St. Pauli - Osnabrück	0:1
01.03.20	St. Pauli - Osnabrück	3:1
22.09.19	Osnabrück - St. Pauli	1:1
Club Friendly
07.01.17	St. Pauli - Osnabrück	0:3

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