Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 12

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV, Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ourense CF		CD Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.9	3.1
	2.28	2.92	3.2
	2.4	2.83	3.52
	2.43	3.05	2.96	Watch
	2.32	2.81	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.43)	2.9 ↓ (3.05)	3.2 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ourense CF
39.4%

Draw
31.7%

CD Guadalajara
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

30.4%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

30.2%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ourense CF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

CD Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Ourense CF - CD Guadalajara Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Guadalajara (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raton A. (G) 12. Jelbat A. 5. Prado M. 4. Carmona F. 3. Sanz H. 21. Guerrero A. 24. Moreno C. 6. Castillo N. 8. Ramos J. 17. Ouhdadi O. 7. Bouzaig A.	1. Zarco A. (G) 16. Cera 4. Ablanque J. 5. Gallardo D. 18. Martinez J. 21. Ramirez M. 22. Samuel 7. Neskes 6. Rojo P. 19. Munoz P. 10. Amigo D.
Substitutes
11. Aranzabe A. 10. Camus M. 2. Coto E. 19. Garcia D. 20. Gueye L. 14. Perez A. 15. Piera J. 23. Punzano I. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 9. Vazquez K. 22. Yuste A.	11. Alvarez U. 23. Casado J. 20. Diaz B. 17. Gil A. 27. Mayo N. 15. Rodriguez V. 29. Verdu M. 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Moreno C. 🟨,
36', Guerrero A. 🟨,
38', Samuel 🟨,
40', Martinez J. 🟨,
45', Cera 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Castillo N. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Moreno C. ↓, Yuste A. ↑,
56', Ramirez M. ↓, Casado J. ↑,
56', Neskes ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
56', Gallardo D. ↓, Gil A. ↑,
66', Munoz P. ↓, Alvarez U. ↑,
70', 2 - 0, Castillo N. ⚽,
74', 3 - 0, Ouhdadi O. ⚽,
75', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Aranzabe A. ↑,
75', Guerrero A. ↓, Coto E. ↑,
75', Jelbat A. ↓, Camus M. ↑,
81', Samuel ↓, Verdu M. ↑,
82', Bouzaig A. ↓, Piera J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 14).

Ourense CF is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Guadalajara has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ourense CF may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Guadalajara has had a series of home games.

Ourense CF might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Ourense CF - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.2%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.11.25	Zamora - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
08.11.25	Ourense CF - Orihuela	3:0 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.11.25	Ourense CF - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	Ourense CF - Real Oviedo	4:2 ET ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.10.25	Cacereño - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23 TWWWT
- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Lugo	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Mérida AD	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Cacereño	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.10.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - CD Guadalajara	3:0 ✺
18.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLWLT

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