Match Info

Championship - Round 43

Date: 18 April 2025, Friday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Whitestone D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Oxford United		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	8.5	5	1.33	Watch
	8.5	5	1.36
	9.76	4.92	1.34	Watch
	9.6	5.27	1.34
	9.11	5	1.35	Watch
	8.5	4.6	1.36
	9.03	5.31	1.37	Watch
	9.76	4.92	1.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.1 ↑ (8.29)	5 ↑ (4.93)	1.35 ↓ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
10.5%

Draw
19%

Leeds United
70.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.4%

19.2%

69.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.9%

18.4%

72.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.8%	0%	72.2%

Oxford United - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Leeds will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Leeds United will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 2. Long S. 47. Helik M. 16. Nelson B. 12. Bennett J. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 4. Vaulks W. 7. Placheta P. 18. Matos A. 19. Goodrham T. 9. Harris M.	26. Darlow K. (G) 2. Bogle J. 6. Rodon J. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 3. Firpo J. 22. Tanaka A. 44. Gruev I. 29. Gnonto W. 11. Aaronson B. 14. Solomon M. 10. Piroe J.
Substitutes
50. Bradshaw T. 15. El Mizouni I. 21. Ingram M. (G) 30. Kioso P. 22. Leigh G. 44. Mills S. 10. Phillips M. 20. Rodrigues R. 11. ter Haar Romeny O.	9. Bamford P. 25. Byram S. 23. Guilavogui J. 7. James D. 19. Joseph M. 1. Meslier I. (G) 17. Ramazani L. 33. Schmidt I. 39. Wober M.
Coaches
Rowett G.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Solomon M. ⚽, Bogle J. (A),
42', Placheta P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Vaulks W. 🟨,
61', Helik M. 🟨,
62', Gruev I. 🟨,
65', Bennett J. ↓, Leigh G. ↑,
65', Harris M. ↓, ter Haar Romeny O. ↑,
76', Gnonto W. ↓, James D. ↑,
76', Piroe J. ↓, Bamford P. ↑,
80', Placheta P. ↓, Mills S. ↑,
80', Matos A. ↓, Bradshaw T. ↑,
84', Mills S. 🟨,
87', Solomon M. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
89', Goodrham T. ↓, El Mizouni I. ↑,
90+2', Bogle J. 🟨,
90+5', Aaronson B. ↓, Guilavogui J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 17 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Recent matches Oxford is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Leeds is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Leeds is certain favorite.

There will not play in Oxford: Brown C. (Injury) ter Avest H. (Inactive)

There will not play in Leeds: Chambers S. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Oxford: Moore E. (Hamstring Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Oxford won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:12 (average 1:3).

Including matches at home between the teams Oxford won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League Championship
12.04.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Oxford United	0:1 ✺
09.04.25	Oxford United - Queens Park Rangers	1:3 ✺
05.04.25	Oxford United - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Middlesbrough - Oxford United	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Oxford United - Watford	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WLWLW
- Leeds United
English League Championship
12.04.25	Leeds United - Preston North End	2:1 ✺
08.04.25	Middlesbrough - Leeds United	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Luton Town - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Leeds United - Swansea City	2:2 ✺
15.03.25	Queens Park Rangers - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
21.12.24	Leeds United - Oxford United	4:0
Club Friendly
24.07.18	Oxford United - Leeds United	4:3
29.07.17	Leeds United - Oxford United	2:0
English League Cup
28.08.12	Leeds United - Oxford United	3:0

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