Match Info

Championship - Round 40

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Bramall T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, ESPN 1, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Variety 2
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Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
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Usa	CBS, Paramount+
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World	Disney+


	Luton Town		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	5	4.1	1.62	Watch
	5.75	4	1.58
	5.36	4.11	1.61	Watch
	5.51	4.11	1.6	Watch
	6	3.9	1.57
	5.37	4.23	1.65	Watch
	5.36	4.11	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.48 ↓ (5.59)	4.08 ↓ (4.2)	1.61 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
17.4%

Draw
23.3%

Leeds United
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.8%

22.4%

60.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.3%

24.6%

66.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Leeds United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leeds United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.8%	4.8%	71.4%

Luton Town - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Leeds will win (votes: 15 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 52.1% – 90.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Leeds (2.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 28. Makosso C. 6. McGuinness M. 3. Bell A. 25. Jones I. 18. Clark J. 8. Aasgaard T. 20. Walsh L. 45. Doughty A. 9. Morris C. (C) 11. Adebayo E.	26. Darlow K. (G) 2. Bogle J. 6. Rodon J. 5. Struijk P. 3. Firpo J. 22. Tanaka A. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 7. James D. 29. Gnonto W. 14. Solomon M. 10. Piroe J.
Substitutes
21. Alli M. 47. Bowler J. 16. Burke R. 14. Chong T. 22. Dabo L. 23. Krul T. (G) 12. Naismith K. 37. Nelson Z. 44. Nordas L.	11. Aaronson B. 9. Bamford P. 25. Byram S. 44. Gruev I. 23. Guilavogui J. 1. Meslier I. (G) 17. Ramazani L. 33. Schmidt I. 39. Wober M.
Coaches
Bloomfield M.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Jones I. ⚽, Clark J. (A),
22', Jones I. 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, James D. ⚽,
40', Bogle J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Adebayo E. ↓, Chong T. ↑,
59', Solomon M. 🟨,
63', Gnonto W. ↓, Bamford P. ↑,
77', Jones I. ↓, Alli M. ↑,
77', Doughty A. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
78', Walsh L. ↓, Dabo L. ↑,
79', Piroe J. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
86', Struijk P. ↓, Wober M. ↑,
87', Solomon M. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
87', Bogle J. ↓, Byram S. ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Luton is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Leeds is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Leeds is a favorite.

There will not play in Luton: Baptiste S. (Muscle Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury) Mengi T. (Groin Injury) Nakamba M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Bamford P. (Hamstring Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Luton won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2:7 (average 0.5:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:3 (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League Championship
29.03.25	Hull City - Luton Town	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Luton Town - Middlesbrough	0:0 ✺
11.03.25	Cardiff City - Luton Town	1:2 ✺
08.03.25	Burnley - Luton Town	4:0 ✺
01.03.25	Luton Town - Portsmouth	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WTWLW
- Leeds United
English League Championship
29.03.25	Leeds United - Swansea City	2:2 ✺
15.03.25	Queens Park Rangers - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
12.03.25	Leeds United - Millwall	2:0 ✺
09.03.25	Portsmouth - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
01.03.25	Leeds United - West Bromwich Albion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
27.11.24	Leeds United - Luton Town	3:0
30.06.20	Leeds United - Luton Town	1:1
23.11.19	Luton Town - Leeds United	1:2
English League Cup
23.08.16	Luton Town - Leeds United	0:1

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