Match Info

Championship - Round 41

Date: 8 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough)

Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Turkey	Exxen
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Ultra
Usa	CBS, Paramount+
World	Disney+


	Middlesbrough		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	4.2	4	1.75	Watch
	4.33	3.8	1.77
	4.25	3.93	1.78	Watch
	4.23	4.02	1.77	Watch
	4.5	3.75	1.75
	4.5	4.11	1.77	Watch
	4.25	3.93	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.32 ↓ (4.63)	3.93 ↑ (3.93)	1.77 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Middlesbrough
22%

Draw
24.2%

Leeds United
53.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.4%

24.1%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19%

25.9%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Leeds United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leeds United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.9%	8.9%	62.2%

Middlesbrough - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Middlesbrough will win (votes: 13 - 28.9%). Leeds will win (votes: 28 - 62.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 8.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 48% – 76.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Leeds (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Middlesbrough (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Leeds (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Travers M. (G) 15. Dijksteel A. 16. Howson J. (C) 3. van den Berg R. 29. Iling Junior S. 18. Morris A. 7. Hackney H. 10. Burgzorg D. 20. Azaz F. 22. Conway T. 9. Iheanacho K.	26. Darlow K. (G) 2. Bogle J. 6. Rodon J. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 3. Firpo J. 22. Tanaka A. 44. Gruev I. 7. James D. 11. Aaronson B. 14. Solomon M. 10. Piroe J.
Substitutes
4. Barlaser D. 21. Forss M. 6. Fry D. 28. Giles R. 23. Glover T. (G) 49. McCabe L. 8. McGree R. 11. Whittaker M. 36. Woolston L.	9. Bamford P. 25. Byram S. 29. Gnonto W. 23. Guilavogui J. 19. Joseph M. 1. Meslier I. (G) 17. Ramazani L. 33. Schmidt I. 39. Wober M.
Coaches
Carrick M.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, James D. ⚽, Solomon M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Iheanacho K. ↓, Whittaker M. ↑,
68', Solomon M. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
68', Firpo J. ↓, Byram S. ↑,
73', Piroe J. ↓, Bamford P. ↑,
73', James D. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
74', Morris A. 🟨,
75', Byram S. 🟨,
80', Burgzorg D. ↓, Forss M. ↑,
90+1', Aaronson B. ↓, Guilavogui J. ↑,
90+1', Morris A. ↓, Fry D. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Middlesbrough won 1.

Middlesbrough is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Leeds is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Leeds could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Leeds is a favorite.

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Bangura A. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Dieng S. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Doak B. (Thigh Injury) Edmundson G. (Ankle Injury) Fry D. (Calf Injury) Lenihan D. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Neto Borges (Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Struijk P. (Injury)

Last 19 head-to-head matches Middlesbrough won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 20:26 (average 1.1:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Middlesbrough won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11:9 (average 1.2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Leeds United - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 55.53%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
04.04.25	Blackburn Rovers - Middlesbrough	0:2 ✺
29.03.25	Middlesbrough - Oxford United	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Luton Town - Middlesbrough	0:0 ✺
11.03.25	Middlesbrough - Queens Park Rangers	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Swansea City - Middlesbrough	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWTWL
- Leeds United
English League Championship
05.04.25	Luton Town - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Leeds United - Swansea City	2:2 ✺
15.03.25	Queens Park Rangers - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
12.03.25	Leeds United - Millwall	2:0 ✺
09.03.25	Portsmouth - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
10.12.24	Leeds United - Middlesbrough	3:1
English League Cup
14.08.24	Leeds United - Middlesbrough	0:3
English League Championship
22.04.24	Middlesbrough - Leeds United	3:4
02.12.23	Leeds United - Middlesbrough	3:2
26.02.20	Middlesbrough - Leeds United	0:1
30.11.19	Leeds United - Middlesbrough	4:0
09.02.19	Middlesbrough - Leeds United	1:1

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