The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Stoke City 34.6%
Draw 28.8%
Watford 36.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
39.1%
28.3%
32.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40%
28.9%
31.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)
Watford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+5.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stoke City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Watford than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
42.9%
50%
7.1%
Stoke City - Watford Predictions
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Watford will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH -0.25 - Stoke (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 2 - 50%). Watford (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
25. Simkin T. (G) 22. Tchamadeu J. 40. Talovierov M. 26. Phillips A. 17. Bocat E. 15. N'Zonzi S. (C) 19. Rigo T. 42. Manhoef M. 10. Bae J. 7. Thomas S. 49. Smit M.
1. Selvik E. (G) 25. Abankwah J. 3. Goglichidze S. 21. Mfuni S. 16. Bola M. 7. Ince T. 10. Louza I. (C) 23. Mendy N. 8. Chakvetadze G. 39. Kayembe E. 18. Semedo V.
Substitutes
50. Agina S. 29. Cisse L. 34. Fielding F. (G) 20. Gallagher S. 23. Gibson B. 59. Kelly G. 4. Pearson B. 21. Rak-Sakyi J. 12. Seko T.
12. Baxter N. (G) 15. Bove E. 17. Ekwah P. 66. Irankunda N. 4. Keben K. 9. Kjerrumgaard L. 64. Lawson J. 53. Nabizada A. 6. Pollock M.
Coaches
Robins M.
Still E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Rigo T. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Manhoef M. ⚽, Smit M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', Thomas S. 🟨,
51', Mendy N. 🟨,
60', Talovierov M. 🟨,
62', Semedo V. ↓, Irankunda N. ↑,
70', Bocat E. ↓, Gibson B. ↑,
71', Smit M. ↓, Gallagher S. ↑,
71', Ince T. ↓, Lawson J. ↑,
71', Mendy N. ↓, Ekwah P. ↑,
72', Simkin T. 🟨,
77', 2 - 0, Manhoef M. ⚽,
79', Manhoef M. ↓, Rak-Sakyi J. ↑,
79', Bae J. ↓, Pearson B. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Irankunda N. ⚽, Chakvetadze G. (A),
83', N'Zonzi S. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Gallagher S. ⚽, Thomas S. (A),
86', Mfuni S. ↓, Bove E. ↑,
86', Louza I. ↓, Kjerrumgaard L. ↑,
90+3', Irankunda N. 🟨,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 16 and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 1.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Watford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
There will not play in Stoke: Ampah A.
(Injury)
Baker L.
(Inactive)
Bazunu G.
(Thigh Injury)
Bozenik R.
(Shoulder Injury)
Cresswell A.
(Calf Injury)
Gallagher S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Johansson V.
(Shoulder Injury)
Lawal B.
(Inactive)
Mubama D.
(Ankle Injury)
Wilmot B.
(Injury)
There will not play in Watford: Baah K.
(Injury)
Kyprianou H.
(Ankle Injury)
Maamma O.
(Injury)
Vata R.
(Hamstring Injury)
There are questionable in Stoke: Bocat E.
(Injury)
Tchamadeu J.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Watford: Pollock M.
(Inactive)
In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:20. (average 0.9:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Stoke won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.6:1.1).
Outrights of English League Championship for now
Watford: 0.75%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
4
Stoke
9
5
1
3
15:13
2
16
20
Watford
9
2
2
5
7:14
-7
8
Last Results with these Odds
Stoke City - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 39.13%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.
Watford - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 32.57%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.
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Simkin T. (G) 
Tchamadeu J. 
Talovierov M. 
Bocat E. 
Rigo T. 
Manhoef M. 
Bae J. 
Thomas S. 
Selvik E. (G) 
Abankwah J. 
Goglichidze S. 
Louza I. (C) 
Mendy N. 
Kayembe E. 
Semedo V. 
Seko T. 
Bove E. 
Irankunda N. 
Kjerrumgaard L. 
Still E. 
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