Match Info

Championship - Round 36

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Vicarage Road (Watford)

Referee: Herczeg A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+


	Watford		Wrexham

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3	Watch
	2.32	3.33	3.12	Watch
	2.38	3.43	3.1
	2.33	3.44	3.01	Watch
	2.3	3.2	2.9
	2.27	3.3	3.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.09)	3.35 ↓ (3.42)	3.04 ↓ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Watford
40.9%

Draw
28.1%

Wrexham
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

27.3%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

28.3%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Wrexham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Watford, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wrexham than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	29.2%	45.8%

Watford - Wrexham Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Watford will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). Wrexham will win (votes: 11 - 47.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 30.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wrexham: 27.4% – 68.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Wrexham (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Wrexham (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Wrexham (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Selvik E. (G) 25. Abankwah J. 6. Pollock M. 3. Goglichidze S. 16. Bola M. 66. Irankunda N. 10. Louza I. (C) 17. Ekwah P. 8. Chakvetadze G. 39. Kayembe E. 9. Kjerrumgaard L.	1. Okonkwo A. (G) 4. Cleworth M. 5. Hyam D. (C) 2. Doyle C. 47. Longman R. 26. Vyner Z. 27. O'Brien L. 14. Thomason G. 20. Rathbone O. 33. Broadhead N. 28. Smith S.
Substitutes
12. Baxter N. (G) 15. Bove E. 20. Doumbia M. 56. Eames A. 7. Ince T. 4. Keben K. 27. Mendy F. 23. Mendy N. 53. Nabizada A.	29. Barnett R. 3. Brunt L. 11. Cadamarteri B. 12. Kabore I. 7. Keillor-Dunn D. 16. Rodriguez J. 24. Scarr D. 21. Ward D. (G) 10. Windass J.
Coaches
Still E.	Parkinson P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Bola M. ⚽, Chakvetadze G. (A),
38', 2 - 0, Kayembe E. ⚽, Irankunda N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Broadhead N. ↓, Windass J. ↑,
49', 2 - 1, Cleworth M. ⚽, Rathbone O. (A),
64', Longman R. ↓, Kabore I. ↑,
64', Rathbone O. ↓, Keillor-Dunn D. ↑,
71', Ekwah P. ↓, Mendy N. ↑,
71', Irankunda N. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
75', Smith S. ↓, Cadamarteri B. ↑,
81', Chakvetadze G. 🟨,
83', Kayembe E. ↓, Bove E. ↑,
83', Chakvetadze G. ↓, Mendy F. ↑,
88', Vyner Z. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
90+1', Abankwah J. ↓, Keben K. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 1, Bove E. ⚽,
90+5', Bove E. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Wrexham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Wrexham has had a series of home games.

Watford could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Watford: Baah K. (Injury) Kyprianou H. (Ankle Injury) Maamma O. (Injury) Ngakia J. (Inactive) Petris J. (Inactive) Vata R. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Wrexham: Cacace L. (Injury) James A. (Injury) James M. (Injury) Moore K. (Hamstring Injury) O'Connor T. (Injury) Sheaf B. (Knee Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Watford won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Wrexham: 4.26% Watford: 0.75%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	10:13	-3	11
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7:14	-7	8

Last Results with these Odds

Wrexham - the odds 3.33 are the expected chance of winning is 28.04%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Watford FC
English League Championship
14.03.26	Stoke City - Watford	3:1 ✺
10.03.26	Sheffield Wednesday - Watford	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Bristol City - Watford	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Watford - Ipswich Town	0:2 ✺
21.02.26	Watford - Derby County	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTWLW
- Wrexham AFC
English League Championship
13.03.26	Wrexham - Swansea City	2:0 ✺
10.03.26	Wrexham - Hull City	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
07.03.26	Wrexham - Chelsea	2:4 ET ✺
English League Championship
28.02.26	Charlton Athletic - Wrexham	0:1 ✺
24.02.26	Wrexham - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
13.12.25	Wrexham - Watford	2:2

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