What is the expert prediction for RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, January 17, 2026)

Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Xsports, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, PPTV Sports
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	RB Leipzig		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.75	1.6	Watch
	4.7	4.7	1.6	Watch
	4.72	4.69	1.65	Watch
	4.6	4.4	1.57
	4.96	4.75	1.66	Watch
	4.5	4.75	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.66 ↓ (5.6)	4.67 ↓ (5.3)	1.62 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
20.5%

Draw
20.4%

Bayern Munich
59.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17%

18%

64.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.5%

17.5%

66.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bayern Munich might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayern Munich could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.3%	23.3%	53.5%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 10 - 23.8%). Bayern will win (votes: 22 - 52.4%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 37.3% – 67.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Bayern (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - RB Leipzig (2.29) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +1 - RB Leipzig (1.72) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.75, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Bayern (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Bayern (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Bayern (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Bayern (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 8 - 34.8%). Bayern (votes: 14 - 60.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gulacsi P. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 24. Schlager X. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. 49. Diomande Y. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.	1. Neuer M. (C) 20. Bischof T. 2. Upamecano D. 4. Tah J. 21. Ito H. 45. Pavlovic A. 8. Goretzka L. 42. Karl L. 7. Gnabry S. 14. Diaz L. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 33. Maksimovic A. 19. Nedeljkovic K. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G)	38. Chavez F. 47. Daiber D. 19. Davies A. 22. Guerreiro R. 6. Kimmich J. 3. Kim Min-Jae 10. Musiala J. 17. Olise M. 40. Urbig J. (G)
Coaches
Werner O.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Romulo Cardoso ⚽, Raum D. (A),
29', Seiwald N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 5)
46', Goretzka L. ↓, Kimmich J. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Gnabry S. ⚽, Upamecano D. (A),
57', Karl L. ↓, Olise M. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Kane H. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
81', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
81', Seiwald N. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
81', Bischof T. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
83', 1 - 3, Tah J. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
85', Baumgartner C. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
85', 1 - 4, Pavlovic A. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
87', Gnabry S. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
87', Ito H. ↓, Kim Min-Jae ↑,
88', 1 - 5, Olise M. ⚽, Musiala J. (A),
90', Nusa A. ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 0.

RB Leipzig has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bayern is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bayern may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, RB Leipzig has had a series of home games.

In this match, Bayern is the team to beat.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Jackson N. (International duty) Laimer K. (Calf Injury) Stanisic J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in RB Leipzig: Bakayoko J. (Calf Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Klostermann L. (Illness)

There are questionable in Bayern: Boey S. (Illness) Davies A. (Illness) Kimmich J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 26:44. (average 1.3:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:21. (average 1.3:2.1).

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Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayern Munich: 99.01%

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich ✔	29	24	4	1	105:27	78	76
4	RB Leipzig	29	17	5	7	56:36	20	56

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
14.01.26	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
12.12.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
06.12.25	RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt	6:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	RB Leipzig - Magdeburg	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLLWW
- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
14.01.26	Köln - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
11.01.26	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	8:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.01.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.12.25	Heidenheim - Bayern Munich	0:4 ✺
14.12.25	Bayern Munich - Mainz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
22.08.25	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	6:0
03.05.25	RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich	3:3
20.12.24	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	5:1
24.02.24	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	2:1
30.09.23	RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich	2:2
German Super Cup
12.08.23	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	0:3
German Bundesliga
20.05.23	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	1:3

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
18.04.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig	✺
- Bayern Munich
German DFB Pokal
22.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	✺
German Bundesliga
19.04.26	Bayern Munich - Stuttgart	✺
UEFA Champions League
15.04.26	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	✺