Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
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World	Onefootball


	RB Leipzig		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.75	1.6	Watch
	4.7	4.7	1.6	Watch
	4.72	4.69	1.65	Watch
	4.6	4.4	1.57	Watch
	4.96	4.75	1.66	Watch
	4.5	4.75	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.66 ↓ (5.6)	4.67 ↓ (5.3)	1.62 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
20.5%

Draw
20.4%

Bayern Munich
59.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17%

18%

64.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.5%

17.5%

66.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bayern Munich might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayern Munich could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.3%	23.3%	53.5%

RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 10 - 23.8%). Bayern will win (votes: 22 - 52.4%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 37.3% – 67.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Bayern (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - RB Leipzig (2.29) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +1 - RB Leipzig (1.72) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Bayern (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 8 - 40%). Bayern (votes: 11 - 55%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gulacsi P. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 24. Schlager X. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. 49. Diomande Y. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.	1. Neuer M. (C) 20. Bischof T. 2. Upamecano D. 4. Tah J. 21. Ito H. 45. Pavlovic A. 8. Goretzka L. 42. Karl L. 7. Gnabry S. 14. Diaz L. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 33. Maksimovic A. 19. Nedeljkovic K. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G)	38. Chavez F. 47. Daiber D. 19. Davies A. 22. Guerreiro R. 6. Kimmich J. 3. Kim Min-Jae 10. Musiala J. 17. Olise M. 40. Urbig J. (G)
Coaches
Werner O.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Romulo Cardoso ⚽, Raum D. (A),
29', Seiwald N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 5)
46', Goretzka L. ↓, Kimmich J. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Gnabry S. ⚽, Upamecano D. (A),
57', Karl L. ↓, Olise M. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Kane H. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
81', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
81', Seiwald N. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
81', Bischof T. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
83', 1 - 3, Tah J. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
85', Baumgartner C. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
85', 1 - 4, Pavlovic A. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
87', Gnabry S. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
87', Ito H. ↓, Kim Min-Jae ↑,
88', 1 - 5, Olise M. ⚽, Musiala J. (A),
90', Nusa A. ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 0.

RB Leipzig has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bayern is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bayern may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, RB Leipzig has had a series of home games.

In this match, Bayern is the team to beat.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Jackson N. (International duty) Laimer K. (Calf Injury) Stanisic J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in RB Leipzig: Bakayoko J. (Calf Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Klostermann L. (Illness)

There are questionable in Bayern: Boey S. (Illness) Davies A. (Illness) Kimmich J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 26:44. (average 1.3:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:21. (average 1.3:2.1).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayern Munich: 80.24% RB Leipzig: 2.98%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	14:2	12	10
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
14.01.26	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
12.12.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
06.12.25	RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt	6:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	RB Leipzig - Magdeburg	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLLWW
- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
14.01.26	Köln - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
11.01.26	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	8:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.01.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.12.25	Heidenheim - Bayern Munich	0:4 ✺
14.12.25	Bayern Munich - Mainz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
22.08.25	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	6:0
03.05.25	RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich	3:3
20.12.24	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	5:1
24.02.24	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	2:1
30.09.23	RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich	2:2
German Super Cup
12.08.23	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	0:3
German Bundesliga
20.05.23	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	1:3

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