Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 14 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Miguel Hidalgo (Pachuca de Soto)

Referee: Rosario I. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	FOX+, FOX One, FOX Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Pachuca		UNAM

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.6	3.5	Watch
	1.98	3.45	3.55	Watch
	2.2	3.44	3.27
	2.02	3.54	3.62	Watch
	1.91	3.3	3.25
	1.98	3.85	3.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.11)	3.53 ↑ (3.1)	3.45 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pachuca
46.5%

Draw
26.4%

UNAM
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

28.7%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

29.7%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pachuca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

UNAM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	28.6%	42.9%

Pachuca - UNAM Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Pachuca will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). UNAM will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - UNAM (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. UNAM (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Moreno C. (C) 14. Sanchez C. 4. Eduardo Bauermann 2. Barreto S. D. 12. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 16. Rivera C. 8. Guzman V. 29. Kenedy 28. Montiel E. 11. Idrissi O. 10. Valencia E.	1. Navas K. (C) 2. Bennevendo P. 6. Nathan Silva 5. Duarte R. 45. Vite P. 7. Lopez R. 28. Carrasquilla A. 24. Leone T. 77. Angulo A. 31. Morales R. 33. Carrillo J.
Substitutes
187. Alvarez G. 26. Bautista A. 13. Berlanga J. 18. Dominguez A. 31. Eulogio J. (G) 21. Lopez R. 7. Quinones L. 188. Rodriguez S. 23. Rondon S.	21. Antuna U. 215. Azuaje A. 14. Garza C. 23. Juninho 35. Lara P. (G) 193. Ramirez D. 26. Rico A. 19. Rivas J. 15. Rivas U. 20. Trigos S.
Coaches
Solari E.	Juarez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Idrissi O. ⚽, Guzman V. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Lopez R. ↓, Antuna U. ↑,
60', Morales R. 🟨,
61', Angulo A. 🟨,
70', Carrillo J. 🟨,
76', Montiel E. ↓, Rondon S. ↑,
76', Carrasquilla A. ↓, Garza C. ↑,
80', Valencia E. ↓, Dominguez A. ↑,
85', Morales R. ↓, Juninho ↑,
86', Kenedy ↓, Quinones L. ↑,
86', Idrissi O. ↓, Alvarez G. ↑,
90+1', Eduardo Bauermann 🟥,

Preview

First leg.

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 3.

Pachuca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

UNAM is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Pachuca might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:22. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pachuca won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15:11	4	12
13	UNAM Pumas	10	3	3	4	14:16	-2	12

Last Results with these Odds

UNAM - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 29.16%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX
10.05.26	Pachuca - Toluca	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Toluca - Pachuca	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Pachuca - UNAM	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Tijuana - Pachuca	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Monterrey - Pachuca	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWLLW
- UNAM Pumas
Mexican Liga MX
10.05.26	UNAM - Club América	3:3 ✺
03.05.26	Club América - UNAM	3:3 ✺
25.04.26	Pachuca - UNAM	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	UNAM - Juárez	4:2 ✺
17.04.26	Atlético San Luis - UNAM	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
25.04.26	Pachuca - UNAM	0:2
20.11.25	Pachuca - UNAM	3:1
20.07.25	UNAM - Pachuca	2:3
16.02.25	Pachuca - UNAM	2:1
21.07.24	UNAM - Pachuca	2:0
02.05.24	Pachuca - UNAM	0:1 penalties
28.01.24	UNAM - Pachuca	3:1

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