Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Perez R. B. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Chile	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Indonesia	Mola TV
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Spain	beIN Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
World	Amazon Prime Video, DirecTV Sports, Disney+, Fanatiz


	Palestino		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.88	2.88	Watch
	2.7	2.87	2.8
	2.75	2.85	2.8	Watch
	2.78	2.92	2.98
	2.79	2.98	2.81	Watch
	2.62	2.9	2.7	Watch
	2.74	3	2.69	Watch
	2.75	2.85	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.37)	2.91 ↓ (3.19)	2.81 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palestino
34.3%

Draw
32.3%

Cuiabá
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

29.3%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

28.6%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palestino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Palestino's form might have worsened.

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Palestino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Palestino - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Palestino will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Cuiabá will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palestino: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rigamonti C. (G) 28. Zuniga D. 17. Roman I. 13. Suarez C. 3. Rojas B. 23. Martinez Arce A. E. 5. Linares N. 10. Davila Carvajal M. 7. Carrasco B. (C) 27. Marabel J. 11. Benitez J.	1. Walter (C) 21. Railan 20. Rikelme 33. Alan Empereur 5. Filipe Augusto 97. Andre Luis 10. Max Alves 30. Lucas Mineiro 34. Bruno Alves 22. Derik Lacerda 9. Pitta I.
Substitutes
14. Abrigo J. 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 22. Chamorro F. 26. Contreras D. (G) 2. Espinoza Hevia V. A. 18. Fuentes M. 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 15. Montes Romero F. T. 24. Palacio P. 9. Sosa G. 19. Vejar B.	3. Allyson 25. Clayson 27. Denilson Alves 16. Deyverson 11. Eliel 88. Fernando Sobral 7. Jonathan Cafu 18. Lucas Fernandes 4. Marllon 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 2. Matheus Alexandre 23. Ramon
Coaches
Bovaglio L.	Petit

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Linares N. ⚽,
45+3', Roman I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pitta I. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
46', Railan ↓, Matheus Alexandre ↑,
55', Benitez J. 🟨,
61', 1 - 1, Deyverson ⚽,
74', Derik Lacerda ↓, Eliel ↑,
74', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
74', Carrasco B. ↓, Palacio P. ↑,
74', Davila Carvajal M. ↓, Abrigo J. ↑,
82', Benitez J. ↓, Fuentes M. ↑,
82', Martinez Arce A. E. ↓, Vejar B. ↑,
87', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
90+1', Andre Luis ↓, Jonathan Cafu ↑,
90+3', Max Alves 🟨,
90+5', Bruno Alves 🟨,
90+9', Abrigo J. (Pen),

Preview

1st leg.

Cuiabá is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs 1/16~finals)

Palestino is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Cuiabá is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Cup
12.07.24	Palestino - Santiago Wanderers	3:1 ✺
06.07.24	Santiago Wanderers - Palestino	2:2 ✺
30.06.24	Palestino - Barnechea	3:0 ✺
23.06.24	Barnechea - Palestino	3:2 ✺
16.06.24	Santiago City - Palestino	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTWLW
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie A
13.07.24	Bahia - Cuiabá	1:2 ✺
06.07.24	Flamengo - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
03.07.24	Cuiabá - Botafogo RJ	1:2 ✺
29.06.24	Cuiabá - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
26.06.24	Corinthians - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.1 WTLTT

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