Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 11

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna (Santiago de Chile)


	Palestino		Deportes Concepción

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.7	3.9	4.4
	1.72	3.55	4.7
	1.76	3.76	5.08
	1.68	3.63	5.15	Watch
	1.67	3.3	4.6
	1.74	3.64	5.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.77)	3.61 ↓ (3.65)	4.84 ↑ (4.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palestino
54.8%

Draw
25.9%

Deportes Concepción
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

25.8%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

24.6%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palestino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Deportes Concepción has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Palestino - Deportes Concepción Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Palestino (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Palestino will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Perez Kirby S. A. (C) 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 2. Espinoza Hevia V. A. 3. Roco E. 23. Leon J. 15. Montes Romero F. T. 8. Meza N. 27. Munder C. 18. Gallegos S. 21. Araya M. 9. Fernandez R.	25. Araya N. (G) 11. Vejar B. 13. Suarez C. 21. Rodriguez N. 29. Varas D. 22. Davila Carvajal M. 20. Henriquez J. 24. Cavalleri M. 32. Larrivey J. (C) 19. Jara A. 17. Mesias Gonzalez I. S.
Substitutes
16. Bizama J. 7. Carrasco B. 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 19. Da Silva N. 5. Fernandez J. 6. Meza F. 1. Salas S. (G) 24. Salgado D. 20. Tapia Paez G.	4. Caceres A. 30. Espinoza E. 7. Gillard A. 28. Gonzalez M. 18. Rodriguez Y. 23. Rojas J. 16. Sandoval M. 10. Valencia Rossel L. 12. Veloso Espinoza N. (G)
Coaches
Munoz C.	Lemma W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Larrivey J. (Penalty Awarded),
34', Cavalleri M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Araya M. ↓, Salgado D. ↑,
48', Gallegos S. 🟨,
54', Salgado D. 🟨,
59', Larrivey J. 🟨,
60', Munder C. ↓, Da Silva N. ↑,
61', Garguez Gomez I. A. ↓, Ceza Gavilan A. A. ↑,
61', Gallegos S. ↓, Tapia Paez G. ↑,
61', Cavalleri M. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
66', Henriquez J. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
66', Rodriguez N. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
78', Jara A. ↓, Gillard A. ↑,
78', Larrivey J. ↓, Valencia Rossel L. ↑,
79', Montes Romero F. T. ↓, Carrasco B. ↑,
90+3', Perez Kirby S. A. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga de Ascenso).

Palestino has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Deportes Concepción is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Palestino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Palestino is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Palestino won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 14:7. (average 3.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Palestino won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 4:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Palestino	23	11	3	9	36:33	3	36
9	D. Concepcion	23	9	4	10	25:26	-1	31

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Primera Division
19.04.26	Colo-Colo - Palestino	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Palestino - Montevideo City Torque	0:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
11.04.26	Palestino - Deportes Limache	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Palestino	0:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
02.04.26	Universidad Católica - Palestino	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WLWTL
- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Primera Division
18.04.26	Deportes Concepción - Deportes La Serena	3:3 ✺
13.04.26	Unión La Calera - Deportes Concepción	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Deportes Concepción - Colo-Colo	0:1 ✺
Chilean Copa de la Liga
29.03.26	Coquimbo Unido - Deportes Concepción	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Deportes Concepción - Colo-Colo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Cup
30.04.25	Palestino - Deportes Concepción	4:4
23.03.25	Deportes Concepción - Palestino	3:2
03.07.21	Deportes Concepción - Palestino	0:4
30.06.21	Palestino - Deportes Concepción	4:0

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