Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 9

Date: 2 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Arena Barueri (Barueri)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz


	Palmeiras		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	1.46	4.2	6.5	Watch
	1.55	3.95	5.9	Watch
	1.54	4.26	6.04
	1.52	4.37	5.98	Watch
	1.5	4	5.5
	1.55	4.38	6.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.55)	4.19 ↓ (4.24)	5.99 ↑ (5.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
61.9%

Draw
22.4%

Grêmio
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

22.4%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

22%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	18.2%	9.1%

Palmeiras - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Grêmio will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 3. Bruno Fuchs 26. Murilo (C) 6. Jefte 17. Marlon Freitas 8. Andreas Pereira 40. Allan Elias 18. Mauricio 11. Arias J. 42. Lopez J.	1. Weverton (G) 7. Pavon C. 6. Gustavo Martins 44. Viery 54. Pedro Gabriel 19. Noriega E. 5. Nardoni J. 21. Tete 11. Monsalve M. 99. Enamorado J. 95. Carlos Vinicius (C)
Substitutes
56. Arthur Gabriel 45. Erick Bele 7. Felipe Anderson 15. Gomez G. 12. Khellven 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 19. Sosa R.	9. Amuzu F. 50. Bernardo Zortea 22. Braithwaite M. 17. Dodi 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 14. Marcos Rocha 65. Riquelme 47. Roger 39. Tiago 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann
Coaches
Martins J.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', Pedro Gabriel 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Marlon Freitas ⚽, Andreas Pereira (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Noriega E. ↓, Dodi ↑,
46', Monsalve M. ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
46', Tete ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Gustavo Martins (A),
67', Jefte ↓, Arthur Gabriel ↑,
71', Mauricio ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
72', Lopez J. ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Marlon Freitas ⚽,
74', Gustavo Martins 🟨,
76', Enamorado J. ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
80', Nardoni J. ↓, Bernardo Zortea ↑,
84', Arias J. ↓, Khellven ↑,
84', Allan Elias ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
86', Dodi 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.

Palmeiras is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Grêmio has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Palmeiras may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Palmeiras is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo (Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Marlon (Broken ankle) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Palmeiras: Piquerez J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 32:16. (average 1.6:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:6. (average 1.6:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 1.55 are the expected chance of winning is 61.4%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
21.03.26	São Paulo - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
12.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.03.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWLW
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
22.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Grêmio - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Chapecoense - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
12.03.26	Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
25.11.25	Grêmio - Palmeiras	3:2
26.07.25	Palmeiras - Grêmio	1:0
08.11.24	Palmeiras - Grêmio	1:0
04.07.24	Grêmio - Palmeiras	2:2
21.09.23	Grêmio - Palmeiras	1:0
10.05.23	Palmeiras - Grêmio	4:1
31.10.21	Grêmio - Palmeiras	1:3

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