Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 6 March 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Olympic Stadium of Athens (Athens) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Lambrechts E. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport Variety 1
Albania	18:45	SuperSport 6
Argentina	14:45	Disney+
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 7
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Sport 4
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
Chile	14:45	Disney+
China	01:45	iQIYI
Colombia	12:45	Disney+
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 6
Germany	18:45	RTL+
Greece	19:45	COSMOTE Sport 4
Iceland	17:45	Stod 2 Sport 4
India	23:15	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect
Malta	18:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	11:45	Claro Sports, FOX Sports 2
Montenegro	18:45	Arena Premium 3
Myanmar	00:15	Canal+ Myanmar
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	18:45	SuperSport Variety 1
North Macedonia	18:45	Arena Premium 3
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Peru	12:45	Disney+
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport Premium 6
Portugal	17:45	DAZN 6
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	18:45	SportKlub 4
South Africa	19:45	SuperSport Variety 1
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 8
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 11, Blue Sport 11, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United Kingdom	17:45	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	14:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	13:45	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	00:45	ON Plus
International	17:45	Disney+


	Panathinaikos		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3	2.88	2.6	Watch
	3	3.1	2.25
	3.1	3	2.45	Watch
	3.1	3.07	2.6
	3	3.09	2.55	Watch
	3.18	2.93	2.56
	3.1	3	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↓ (3.16)	3.01 ↓ (3.26)	2.49 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Panathinaikos
30.8%

Draw
31.4%

Fiorentina
37.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30%

29.1%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

28.8%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Panathinaikos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Panathinaikos than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.9%	41.7%	35.4%

Panathinaikos - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Panathinaikos will win (votes: 9 - 20.5%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 17 - 38.6%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 40.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.4% – 55.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
69. Dragowski B. (G) 55. Arao W. 15. Ingason S. I. 20. Maksimovic N. 27. Kotsiras G. (C) 8. Ounahi A. 24. Siopis M. 25. Mladenovic F. 10. Tete 19. Swiderski K. 31. Djuricic F.	1. Terracciano P. (G) 22. Moreno M. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 21. Gosens R. 24. Richardson A. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 2. Dodo 20. Kean M. 9. Beltran L.
Substitutes
30. Bregou A. 26. Fikaj E. 16. Gnezda Cerin A. 7. Ioannidis F. 29. Jeremejeff A. 81. Lilo K. (G) 1. Lodygin Y. (G) 17. Mancini D. 3. Max P. 80. Ntampizas A. 2. Vagiannidis G.	61. Baroncelli L. 63. Caprini M. 32. Cataldi D. 43. de Gea D. (G) 10. Gudmundsson A. 64. Harder J. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 65. Parisi F. 5. Pongracic M. 17. Zaniolo N.
Coaches
Vitoria R.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, Swiderski K. ⚽, Maksimovic N. (A),
19', 2 - 0, Maksimovic N. ⚽, Djuricic F. (A),
20', 2 - 1, Beltran L. ⚽, Gosens R. (A),
23', 2 - 2, Fagioli N. ⚽, Gosens R. (A),
34', Kotsiras G. ↓, Vagiannidis G. ↑,
39', Tete 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 3 - 2, Tete ⚽, Djuricic F. (A),
59', Richardson A. ↓, Cataldi D. ↑,
75', Fagioli N. ↓, Parisi F. ↑,
75', Beltran L. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
76', Swiderski K. ↓, Ioannidis F. ↑,
76', Maksimovic N. ↓, Gnezda Cerin A. ↑,
79', Moreno M. 🟨,
90+2', Djuricic F. ↓, Mancini D. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Fiorentina could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Fiorentina will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Panathinaikos: Karakasidis G. (Inactive) Limnios D. (Inactive) Magnusson H. (Inactive) Nikas G. (Inactive) Palmer-Brown E. (Muscle Injury) Pellistri F. (Muscle Injury) Perez R. (Inactive) Schenkeveld B. (Inactive) Vagiannidis G. (Muscle Injury) Zeca (Inactive)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Adli Y. (Ankle Injury) Bove E. (Heart Problems) Colpani A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Panathinaikos: Jedvaj T. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Folorunsho M. (Thigh Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Panathinaikos FC
Greek Super League
01.03.25	Panathinaikos - Panetolikos	2:0 ✺
23.02.25	Lamia - Panathinaikos	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.02.25	Panathinaikos - Vikingur Reykjavik	2:0 ✺
Greek Super League
16.02.25	Panathinaikos - Volos	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.02.25	Vikingur Reykjavik - Panathinaikos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWWL
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
28.02.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	Verona - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Fiorentina - Como	0:2 ✺
10.02.25	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
06.02.25	Fiorentina - Inter Milan	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLLLW

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