Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 15 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Alphamega Stadium (Kolossi)

Referee: D'hondt L. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1


	Paphos		CSKA 1948 Sofia

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.5	8.5	Watch
	1.29	5	8.5
	1.3	5	10
	1.28	5.3	10.4
	1.3	5.37	8.94	Watch
	1.3	5.43	10
	1.3	5	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.38)	5.23 ↑ (4.97)	9.48 ↑ (6.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paphos
72.2%

Draw
17.9%

CSKA 1948 Sofia
9.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.4%

18.7%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

17.9%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paphos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

CSKA 1948 Sofia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paphos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CSKA 1948 Sofia than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	25%	16.7%

Paphos - CSKA 1948 Sofia Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Paphos will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). CSKA 1948 will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paphos: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ivusic I. (G) 5. Goldar D. 23. Luckassen D. 2. Pileas K. 7. Bruno 30. Dragomir V. 26. Sunjic I. 88. Pepe 22. Tankovic M. 10. Jairo (C) 11. Jaja	1. Marinov P. (G) 19. Furtado S. 14. Ivanov T. 21. Tsenov E. 31. Rapnouil T. 28. Piscevic N. 22. Daskalov R. 10. Kirilov R. (C) 7. Thalis 9. Karagaren B. 40. Ilievski M.
Substitutes
33. Anderson Silva 77. Correia J. 70. Ilia M. 93. Michail N. (G) 25. Name M. 6. Pelagio P. 45. Rafael Pontelo 83. Theodoulou P. (G) 24. Valakari O.	13. Alimollov B. (G) 16. Atanasov M. 91. Bidounga R. 58. Boychev M. 11. Cassiano 6. Iliev R. 26. Markov I. 12. Ntumba L. (G) 61. Octavio 39. Umarbaev P.
Coaches
Carcedo J.	Iliev V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Daskalov R. 🟨,
5', Karagaren B. 🟨,
33', Furtado S. 🟨,
45+2', Furtado S. 🟨,
45+2', Kirilov R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sunjic I. ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
58', Karagaren B. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
60', Tankovic M. 🟨,
60', Bruno ↓, Correia J. ↑,
73', Ilievski M. ↓, Octavio ↑,
73', Thalis ↓, Umarbaev P. ↑,
76', Goldar D. 🟨,
80', Pepe ↓, Valakari O. ↑,
80', Tankovic M. ↓, Ilia M. ↑,
81', Cassiano 🟨,
84', Kirilov R. ↓, Iliev R. ↑,
89', Pileas K. ↓, Name M. ↑,
90+3', Anderson Silva 🟨,
90+6', Marinov P. 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 0, Luckassen D. ⚽,
Extra Time (3 - 0)
91', Rapnouil T. ↓, Markov I. ↑,
94', 2 - 0, Jaja ⚽,
98', Jaja ↓, Pelagio P. ↑,
98', Piscevic N. ↓, Boychev M. ↑,
100', 3 - 0, Anderson Silva ⚽,
110', Markov I. 🟨,
117', Ivanov T. 🟨,
118', 4 - 0, Daskalov R. (Own goal),

Preview

2nd leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Alphamega Stadium. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Paphos is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

CSKA 1948 is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Paphos is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Paphos won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paphos FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.08.24	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Paphos	2:1 ✺
01.08.24	Paphos - Žalgiris	3:0 ET ✺
25.07.24	Žalgiris - Paphos	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.07.24	Paphos - Elfsborg	2:5 ✺
11.07.24	Elfsborg - Paphos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLLL
- CSKA 1948 Sofia
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.08.24	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Paphos	2:1 ✺
01.08.24	Budućnost Podgorica - CSKA 1948 Sofia	1:1 ET ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
28.07.24	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Spartak Varna	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Budućnost Podgorica	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
19.07.24	Cherno More Varna - CSKA 1948 Sofia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
08.08.24	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Paphos	2:1

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