Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 9

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)

Referee: Buquet R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 4
South-korea	Coupang Play
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Paris FC		Nantes

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.2	5	Watch
	1.65	4.15	4.9
	1.67	4.2	5.32
	5.69	2.96	1.82	Watch
	1.68	4.23	5.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.65)	3.95 ↓ (4.02)	4.49 ↓ (4.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris FC
46%

Draw
28.7%

Nantes
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

23.6%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

23.1%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paris FC's form might have worsened.

Nantes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nantes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paris FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nantes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.9%	16.7%	7.4%

Paris FC - Nantes Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Paris FC will win (votes: 41 - 75.9%). Nantes will win (votes: 4 - 7.4%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paris FC: 64.5% – 87.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1 - Nantes (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Paris FC (1.18) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris FC will win (20 of 25 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Paris FC (votes: 22 - 75.9%). Nantes (votes: 3 - 10.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 13.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Nkambadio O. (G) 14. Traore H. 31. Chergui S. 5. Mbow M. 28. De Smet T. 21. Lopez M. (C) 33. Lees-Melou P. 4. Marchetti V. 10. Kebbal I. 11. Krasso J. 27. Simon M.	1. Lopes A. (G) 98. Amian K. (C) 6. Awaziem C. 78. Tati T. 66. Leroux L. 80. Mwanga J. 5. Kwon Hyeok-Kyu 17. Tabibou D. 11. Guirassy B. 19. El Arabi Y. 10. Abline M.
Substitutes
17. Camara A. 12. Dicko N. 9. Geubbels W. 7. Gory A. 93. Ikone J. 15. Kolodziejczak T. 2. Ollila T. 6. Otavio 35. Trapp K. (G)	90. Benhattab Y. 14. Camara A. 30. Carlgren P. (G) 18. Centonze F. 3. Cozza N. 52. Deuff B. 31. Mostafa Mohamed 26. Radakovic U. 69. Ziani S.
Coaches
Gilli S.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, El Arabi Y. ⚽, Leroux L. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Chergui S. ⚽, Lees-Melou P. (A),
24', Mwanga J. 🟨,
39', 1 - 2, Abline M. ⚽,
45+1', Traore H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Traore H. ↓, Otavio ↑,
61', Marchetti V. ↓, Ikone J. ↑,
64', Lopez M. 🟨,
64', Kwon Hyeok-Kyu 🟨,
69', De Smet T. 🟨,
70', Kwon Hyeok-Kyu ↓, Deuff B. ↑,
70', El Arabi Y. ↓, Mostafa Mohamed ↑,
73', Krasso J. ↓, Geubbels W. ↑,
76', Tabibou D. ↓, Cozza N. ↑,
85', Kebbal I. ↓, Gory A. ↑,
85', Simon M. ↓, Dicko N. ↑,
89', Guirassy B. ↓, Centonze F. ↑,
90+1', Castro L. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 15).

Paris FC has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nantes's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Paris FC is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Nantes: Coquelin F. (Hamstring Injury) Lahdo M. (Inactive) Lepenant J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Paris FC: Cafaro M. (Muscle Injury) De Smet T. (Thigh Injury) Hamel P. (Hamstring Injury) Lopez J. (Calf Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Paris FC won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:10. (average 1.5:5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris FC
French Ligue 1
19.10.25	Lens - Paris FC	2:1 ✺
03.10.25	Paris FC - Lorient	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Nice - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Paris FC - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
14.09.25	Brest - Paris FC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWTLW
- FC Nantes
French Ligue 1
19.10.25	Nantes - Lille	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Brest - Nantes	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Toulouse - Nantes	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Nantes - Rennes	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Nice - Nantes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
09.08.25	Nantes - Paris FC	2:3
French Coupe de la Ligue
30.10.19	Nantes - Paris FC	8:0

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