Match Info

Serie A - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Parma		Genoa

	1	X	2
	3.30	2.90	2.40
	3.25	2.90	2.45
	3.00	2.95	2.50	Watch
	3.50	3.00	2.49
	3.18	2.94	2.55	Watch
	3.40	2.95	2.40
	3.37	2.97	2.46
	3.35	3.05	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (3.04)	2.96 ↓ (3.01)	2.46 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Parma
29%

Draw
32.2%

Genoa
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

31.6%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

31.9%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parma than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.9%	76.5%	17.6%

Parma - Genoa Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Parma will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Genoa will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 76.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Genoa (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +2 - Parma (1.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Parma (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Genoa (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Corvi E. (G) 34. Diego Carlos 37. Troilo M. 72. Drobnic D. 15. Delprato E. (C) 4. Sierro V. 16. Keita M. 14. Valeri E. 76. Lontani S. 19. Toure E. B. 9. Romero D.	1. Bijlow J. (G) 27. Marcandalli A. 5. Ostigard L. 34. Otoa S. 3. Ehizibue K. 32. Frendrup M. (C) 97. Sow D. 77. Ellertsson M. E. 10. Junior Messias 8. Baldanzi T. 18. Osmajic M.
Substitutes
11. Almqvist P. 27. Britschgi S. 29. Carboni F. 8. Cremaschi B. 30. Daffara G. (G) 7. Diallo O. 23. Elphege N. 80. Fabbian G. 20. Frigan M. 22. Ghidotti S. (G) 47. Konate A. 3. Ndiaye A. 32. Ordonez C.	4. Amorim 29. Colombo L. 16. Drameh C. 92. El Shaarawy S. 11. Meichtry F. 2. Mitaj M. 31. Puczka D. 20. Sabelli S. 39. Sommariva D. (G) 99. Stolz F. (G) 25. Traore H. J. 9. Vitinha 71. Wiafe S.
Coaches
Cuesta C.	De Rossi D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Drobnic D. 🟨,
14', Otoa S. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Romero D. ⚽, Toure E. B. (A),
44', Marcandalli A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Romero D. ↓, Elphege N. ↑,
56', Toure E. B. ↓, Almqvist P. ↑,
60', Ehizibue K. ↓, El Shaarawy S. ↑,
60', Otoa S. ↓, Puczka D. ↑,
67', Lontani S. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,
69', Baldanzi T. ↓, Colombo L. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Osmajic M. ⚽, Colombo L. (A),
80', 2 - 1, Almqvist P. ⚽, Elphege N. (A),
81', Diego Carlos ↓, Britschgi S. ↑,
81', Sierro V. ↓, Ordonez C. ↑,
85', Sow D. ↓, Vitinha ↑,
85', Junior Messias ↓, Traore H. J. ↑,
85', Delprato E. 🟨,
90+2', Ellertsson M. E. 🟨,
90+3', Troilo M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Parma won 1.

Parma is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Genoa is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Recently, Genoa has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Parma: Nicolussi Caviglia H. (Groin Injury).

Confirmed absences for Genoa: Havel E. (Ankle Injury) Vasquez J. (Red Card) Venturino L. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Parma: Diallo O. (Injury).

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Parma has recorded 6 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:20 (averaging 1.4:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Parma against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 11:7 goals (averaging 1.2:0.8 per game).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Parma: 0.2% Genoa: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Parma	5	1	1	3	4:7	-3	4
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	3:10	-7	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Parma
Italian Serie A
14.09.26	Como - Parma	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Parma - Monza	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
01.09.26	Parma - Cremonese	0:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
29.08.26	Juventus - Parma	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Parma - Cagliari	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- Genoa CFC
Coppa Italia
15.09.26	Genoa - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
12.09.26	Genoa - Frosinone	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Genoa - Como	1:4 ✺
30.08.26	Lazio - Genoa	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Genoa - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
18.01.26	Parma - Genoa	0:0
19.10.25	Genoa - Parma	0:0
12.01.25	Genoa - Parma	1:0
04.11.24	Parma - Genoa	0:1
Italian Serie B
05.02.23	Parma - Genoa	2:0
03.09.22	Genoa - Parma	3:3
Italian Serie A
19.03.21	Parma - Genoa	1:2

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