Match Info

Serie A - Round 6

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	15:00	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	10:00	Disney+
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	23:00	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	15:00	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:00	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	10:00	Disney+
Canada	09:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	10:00	Disney+
China	21:00	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	08:00	Disney+
Croatia	15:00	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	16:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	15:00	TV2 Play
Finland	16:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	15:00	DAZN France
Germany	15:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	16:00	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong Kong	21:00	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Indonesia	20:00	Vidio
Italy	15:00	215 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	22:00	DAZN Japan
Kuwait	16:00	Shasha
Malta	15:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	07:00	Disney+
New Zealand	02:00	beIN Connect
Norway	15:00	VG+
Peru	08:00	Disney+
Russia	16:00	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	16:00	STC TV
Serbia	15:00	Arena Premium 5
Slovenia	15:00	Arena Sport 3
South Korea	22:00	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime+
Spain	15:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:00	TV4 Play
Switzerland	15:00	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	20:00	True Premier Football 4
Turkey	16:00	S Sport+
Ukraine	16:00	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	10:00	Disney+
Usa	09:00	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	09:00	Disney+


	Parma		Lecce

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.9	3.4	4.2
	1.95	3.35	4.15	Watch
	1.96	3.45	4.49
	4.36	2.95	2.02	Watch
	1.99	3.48	4.43
	1.93	3.45	4.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (1.87)	3.35 ↓ (3.69)	3.95 ↓ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Parma
44.2%

Draw
30.1%

Lecce
25.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.1%

25.9%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

21.9%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Parma's form might have worsened.

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Parma than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.2%	13%	21.7%

Parma - Lecce Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Parma will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). Lecce will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Parma: 46.5% – 86.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Parma (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Lecce (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Parma will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Parma (votes: 6 - 75%). Lecce (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Suzuki Z. (G) 15. Del Prato E. (C) 39. Circati A. 3. Ndiaye A. 27. Britschgi S. 16. Keita M. 10. Bernabe A. 22. Sorensen O. 14. Valeri E. 32. Cutrone P. 9. Pellegrino M.	30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 4. Gaspar K. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 29. Coulibaly L. 20. Ramadani Y. 10. Berisha M. 50. Pierotti S. 9. Stulic N. 23. Sottil R.
Substitutes
11. Almqvist P. 19. Begic T. 7. Benedyczak A. 40. Corvi E. (G) 30. Djuric M. 8. Estevez N. 18. Lovik M. 24. Ordonez C. 65. Plicco E. 66. Rinaldi F. (G) 63. Trabucchi N. 37. Troilo M.	19. Banda L. 22. Camarda F. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 14. Helgason T. J. 77. Kaba M. 21. Kouassi C. 80. Kovac N. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 5. Siebert J.
Coaches
Cuesta C.	Di Francesco E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Valeri E. ↓, Lovik M. ↑,
38', 0 - 1, Sottil R. ⚽, Gallo A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Britschgi S. ↓, Almqvist P. ↑,
67', Sorensen O. ↓, Benedyczak A. ↑,
68', Sottil R. ↓, Banda L. ↑,
76', Stulic N. ↓, Camarda F. ↑,
82', Ndiaye A. 🟨,
84', Lovik M. ↓, Djuric M. ↑,
84', Bernabe A. ↓, Estevez N. ↑,
88', Coulibaly L. ↓, Kaba M. ↑,
88', Berisha M. ↓, Ndaba C. ↑,
90+2', Banda L. 🟨,
90+9', Gaspar K. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Parma won 2.

Parma has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lecce is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Lecce may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Parma is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Parma: Cremaschi B. (International duty) Frigan M. (Knee Injury) Ondrejka J. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Lecce: Jean G. (Knee Injury) Marchwinski F. (Knee Injury) Rafia H. (Inactive) Tete Morente (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Parma: Hernani (Ankle Injury) Valenti L. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Gallo A. (Injury) Perez M. (Illness) Pierret B. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Parma won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:17. (average 1.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Parma won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Lecce - the odds 4.15 are the expected chance of winning is 23.02%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Parma
Italian Serie A
29.09.25	Parma - Torino	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
24.09.25	Parma - Spezia	3:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
21.09.25	Cremonese - Parma	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Cagliari - Parma	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Parma - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWTLT
- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Lecce - Bologna	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
23.09.25	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
19.09.25	Lecce - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Atalanta - Lecce	4:1 ✺
29.08.25	Lecce - Milan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
31.01.25	Parma - Lecce	1:3
21.09.24	Lecce - Parma	2:2
Coppa Italia
01.11.23	Lecce - Parma	2:4
Club Friendly
29.07.22	Parma - Lecce	1:0
Italian Serie B
19.03.22	Parma - Lecce	0:0
07.11.21	Lecce - Parma	4:0
Coppa Italia
15.08.21	Parma - Lecce	1:3

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