Match Info

Premiership - Relegation - Final

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Firhill Stadium (Glasgow)

Referee: Lee R. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Partick Thistle		St. Mirren

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.2	2.45
	2.88	3.1	2.48	Watch
	3.11	3.18	2.52
	2.74	2.98	2.84	Watch
	2.9	3	2.45
	2.86	3.24	2.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.63)	3.12 ↓ (3.2)	2.56 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Partick Thistle
32.7%

Draw
30.3%

St. Mirren
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

29.2%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

28.6%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Partick Thistle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

St. Mirren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Partick Thistle than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Mirren than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Partick Thistle - St. Mirren Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Partick will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). St. Mirren will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Partick (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Partick (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Clarke J. (G) 24. McPherson B. 5. Ashcroft L. (C) 22. Loughrey C. 3. Reading P. 10. Chalmers L. 14. Crawford R. 19. McBeth L. 21. Fitzpatrick A. 32. Watt T. 9. Samuel A.	27. Sinclair R. (G) 22. Fraser M. 13. Gogic A. 21. Freckleton M. 6. O'Hara M. (C) 5. King R. 16. Campbell A. 8. Devaney J. 3. Tanser S. 88. Phillips K. 9. Mandron M.
Substitutes
1. Budinauckas L. (G) 42. Dolan L. 39. Falconer M. 64. Letsosa T. 2. Logan C. 11. Mackay-Steven G. 6. Turner K.	17. Calvin J. 32. Douglas L. 38. Falconer T. 7. Idowu R. 10. McMenamin C. 14. N'Lundulu D. 2. Richardson J. 35. Tamosevicius G. (G) 20. Young J.
Coaches
Wilson M.	McLeish C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Phillips K. ⚽, Mandron M. (A),
42', Devaney J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Chalmers L. ↓, Letsosa T. ↑,
59', McPherson B. ↓, Logan C. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Fitzpatrick A. ⚽, Watt T. (A),
64', O'Hara M. ↓, Douglas L. ↑,
70', King R. ↓, Richardson J. ↑,
77', Phillips K. ↓, Idowu R. ↑,
80', McBeth L. ↓, Turner K. ↑,
84', Fitzpatrick A. 🟨,
88', Fitzpatrick A. ↓, Mackay-Steven G. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Partick is Qualified for Premiership (Relegation Semi~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Partick won 2.

Recent performances by Partick have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

St. Mirren's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

St. Mirren may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in St. Mirren: Ayunga J. (Injury) Baccus K. (Hamstring Injury) Dijksteel M. (Groin Injury) George S. (Injury) John D. (Inactive) Mullen R. (Injury) N'Lundulu D. (Inactive)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Partick won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 18:17. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Partick won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.6:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Partick Thistle	8	4	3	1	8:2	6	15

Last Results with these Odds

St. Mirren - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 35.31%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Partick Thistle
Scottish Football Championship
15.05.26	Partick Thistle - Dunfermline Athletic	2:1 ✺
12.05.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Partick Thistle	1:1 ✺
01.05.26	Partick Thistle - Queens Park	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Arbroath - Partick Thistle	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Airdrieonians - Partick Thistle	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WTTTT
- St. Mirren
Scottish Premier League
17.05.26	St. Mirren - Dundee United	1:1 ✺
12.05.26	Aberdeen - St. Mirren	0:2 ✺
09.05.26	St. Mirren - Kilmarnock	0:3 ✺
02.05.26	Dundee - St. Mirren	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	St. Mirren - Livingston	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Cup
08.03.26	St. Mirren - Partick Thistle	2:1
Scottish League Cup
25.07.21	St. Mirren - Partick Thistle	2:0
07.10.20	St. Mirren - Partick Thistle	4:1
22.07.17	Partick Thistle - St. Mirren	5:0
Scottish Cup
08.01.16	St. Mirren - Partick Thistle	1:2
Scottish Premier League
02.05.15	Partick Thistle - St. Mirren	3:0
30.01.15	Partick Thistle - St. Mirren	0:1

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