Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 11

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans)

Referee: Leprodhomme T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free


	Le Mans		Boulogne

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.9	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.75
	2	3.29	4.26
	1.90	3.38	3.80	Watch
	1.96	3.24	4.04	Watch
	1.95	3.5	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 (1.95)	3.35 ↓ (3.5)	3.94 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Le Mans
48.1%

Draw
28%

Boulogne
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

27.1%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

27.4%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Mans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Boulogne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boulogne than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	18.7%	6.2%

Le Mans - Boulogne Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Le Mans will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Boulogne will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Mans: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Mans (votes: 3 - 60%). Boulogne (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Kocik N. (G) 18. Buades L. 21. Eyoum T. 17. Yohou S. (C) 3. Cossier I. 22. Calodat L. 8. Lauray A. 24. Robin M. 27. Rossignol M. 9. Rabillard A. 20. Harhouz W.	30. Uriev A. (G) 18. Thiam D. 15. Pinot A. 5. Zohore N. (C) 12. Boyer J. 7. Boiteau L. 14. Bultel J. 23. Fatar N. 19. Binet N. 10. El Farissi A. 27. Mpembele Boula E.
Substitutes
28. Colas E. 7. Gomes M. 25. Gueye D. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 26. Oggad B. 6. Quarshie E. 5. Voyer H.	33. Boulet F. 26. Capuano G. 22. Duflos S. 25. Gourville S. 16. Kone I. (G) 21. Platret A. 20. Toure H.
Coaches
Videira P.	Dagneaux F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', El Farissi A. 🟨,
33', Rossignol M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Mpembele Boula E. ↓, Capuano G. ↑,
58', Boiteau L. ↓, Boulet F. ↑,
59', Harhouz W. ↓, Gueye D. ↑,
60', Rossignol M. ↓, Quarshie E. ↑,
60', Rabillard A. ↓, Colas E. ↑,
66', Bultel J. ↓, Duflos S. ↑,
71', Robin M. ↓, Oggad B. ↑,
71', Buades L. ↓, Gomes M. ↑,
76', Oggad B. 🟨,
81', Thiam D. ↓, Gourville S. ↑,
81', El Farissi A. ↓, Toure H. ↑,
90', Toure H. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 0, Yohou S. ⚽, Lauray A. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Le Mans won 3.

Le Mans is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Boulogne has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Le Mans might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Le Mans: Abanda L. (Inactive) Cisse A. (Inactive) Delbecque A. (Inactive) Guillaume B. (Inactive) Luvambo T. (Injury) Ribelin A. (Inactive) Vercruysse J. (Injury)

There will not play in Boulogne: Kitenge C. (Inactive) Lenogue X. (Inactive) Martin J. (Injury) Siliadin L. (Injury) Toure H. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Boulogne: Binet N. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Le Mans won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Le Mans won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Le Mans - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 48.61%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 2
18.10.25	Saint-Étienne - Le Mans	2:3 ✺
03.10.25	Le Mans - Troyes	2:2 ✺
26.09.25	Clermont - Le Mans	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	Le Mans - Grenoble	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Dunkerque - Le Mans	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 WTTWT
- US Boulogne
French Ligue 2
17.10.25	Boulogne - Guingamp	2:2 ✺
03.10.25	Amiens - Boulogne	0:1 ✺
29.09.25	Boulogne - Red Star	1:2 ✺
23.09.25	Montpellier - Boulogne	1:3 ✺
19.09.25	Boulogne - Pau	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
14.02.25	Le Mans - Boulogne	1:0
13.09.24	Boulogne - Le Mans	3:2
11.03.22	Le Mans - Boulogne	1:0
01.10.21	Boulogne - Le Mans	0:0
23.02.21	Le Mans - Boulogne	3:0
11.09.20	Boulogne - Le Mans	0:0
15.03.19	Le Mans - Boulogne	2:3

Upcoming Matches